Cameco (CCO) — Westinghouse IPO windfall vs a 153x trailing P/E

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The short version: an IPO windfall at a triple-digit multiple

Cameco (TSX: CCO), the Saskatoon-based uranium producer and fuel-cycle company, closed at CA$124.69 on September 24, 2026. Over twelve months the stock is up only about 2.5%, and over the last month it fell about 13%. That is an odd tape for a company that owns 49% of Westinghouse, the reactor builder that is reportedly lining up a U.S. listing at a valuation above US$50B. The new story is no longer just the uranium price: it is a nuclear fuel-cycle platform with a stake that may soon get a public market price.

The catch is the valuation. Cameco trades at about 153x trailing earnings and roughly 62x forward, so the question for a new buyer is whether the Westinghouse windfall is already in the price. Below we go through the IPO report, the new enrichment deal, a weak second quarter, and how Cameco compares with NexGen, Denison, Teck and Agnico Eagle on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: the Westinghouse IPO report and an enrichment deal

On September 18, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Westinghouse is targeting a valuation above US$50B in a U.S. initial public offering, with a public filing possible as soon as October. Westinghouse had already submitted a confidential draft registration statement on July 31. The key numbers for Cameco shareholders:

• Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse; Brookfield owns the other 51%.
• At the reported value, Cameco’s stake would be worth more than US$24B before dilution.
• Cameco and Brookfield bought Westinghouse in 2023; Cameco’s share of the cost was about US$2.1B.
• Analysts had previously modelled Westinghouse at US$26–30B, so the reported target is well above earlier estimates.

Two days earlier, on September 16, Cameco signed a second deal. It became the exclusive buyer and seller of all future output from Global Laser Enrichment’s planned Paducah laser enrichment plant in Kentucky. Cameco owns 49% of that venture too, and partner Silex called the offtake a key commercial pillar for a future final investment decision.

Neither event adds a dollar to this year’s earnings. The IPO would put a public price on an asset that today is buried in Cameco’s equity accounting, and the enrichment offtake extends Cameco further along the fuel cycle. Both are strategic and valuation stories, not earnings jolts, and both still depend on events that haven’t happened yet: an actual filing and a plant that has not reached a final investment decision.

The Q2 print: a soft quarter under the headline

The reported numbers tell a quieter story. Cameco’s second quarter, released July 31, 2026, showed:

• Net earnings of C$25M, down from C$321M a year earlier.
• Adjusted net earnings of C$77M and adjusted EBITDA of C$391M.
• A C$10M net loss from Westinghouse (Cameco’s share), against C$126M of earnings a year earlier, when the prior-year quarter included a one-time boost of roughly US$170M from the Dukovany reactor project in the Czech Republic.
• 2026 uranium production guidance held at 19.5–21.5 million pounds (Cameco’s share), despite flooding-related supply-route disruptions and interruptions at Key Lake, McArthur River and Cigar Lake.
• About C$1.1B of cash against about C$1.0B of debt.

The weak spots matter for everything below. The tough comparison against last year’s Czech contribution depresses trailing earnings, which is part of why the trailing P/E looks so extreme. And the northern Saskatchewan disruptions are a reminder that Cameco’s operating base is exposed to weather and logistics, even when guidance holds.

Business overview: Cameco vs uranium and mining peers

Cameco mines and mills uranium in northern Saskatchewan (McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake are the flagship assets), runs conversion and fuel services, sells uranium under long-term contracts to utilities, and owns 49% of Westinghouse, whose reactor technology and fuel business serve a large share of the world’s operating reactors. The steadier part is the long-term contract book and Westinghouse’s service work; the swing factors are the uranium price, new reactor orders and mine performance.

On the TSX screener, Cameco sits in the Non-energy minerals sector. NexGen (NXE) and Denison (DML) are the closest business comparables: both are uranium developers in the Athabasca Basin, still building toward production. Teck (TECK.B), the largest diversified miner in the sector, and Agnico Eagle (AEM), the sector’s largest company, serve as producer benchmarks for what profitable miners trade at. IsoEnergy (ISO) was skipped because it is under C$1B in market value.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Cameco (CCO)	$124.69	$54.3B	$3.47B	$355M
NexGen (NXE)	$13.11	$8.79B	$0	−$254M
Denison (DML)	$3.73	$3.38B	$4M	−$276M
Teck (TECK.B)	$94.03	$46.1B	$14.0B	$2.50B
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	$273.91	$139.6B	$20.1B	$8.12B
Average (incl. CCO)	—	$50.4B	$7.51B	$2.09B

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026, tsx-2026-09-25.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes CCO; blank cells skipped.

Cameco is a C$54.3B company, bigger than Teck and second only to Agnico Eagle here, and it is the only uranium name with real revenue: about C$3.47B over the last twelve months and C$355M of net income. NexGen and Denison post losses while they build. Agnico and Teck earn far more profit on far larger revenue, which is the gap the valuation section has to explain.

Performance: uranium lagged the miners

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
Cameco (CCO)	−12.8%	−14.0%	−12.2%	+2.5%	+372%	+954%
NexGen (NXE)	−13.6%	−3.2%	−13.1%	+3.1%	+117%	+536%
Denison (DML)	−24.2%	−13.1%	−19.3%	−4.6%	+103%	+474%
Teck (TECK.B)	−2.4%	+13.8%	+43.3%	+71.0%	+203%	+282%
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	−6.8%	+22.6%	+5.3%	+21.6%	+326%	+272%
Average (incl. CCO)	−12.0%	+1.2%	+0.8%	+18.7%	+224%	+504%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes CCO; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over one year Cameco is up just 2.5%, while Teck gained about 71% and Agnico about 22%. The uranium names lagged as a group: NexGen is up about 3% and Denison is down about 5%. The last month hit uranium hardest, with Cameco down almost 13%, NexGen about 14% and Denison about 24%, so the recent slide looks sector-wide in uranium, not specific to Cameco.

The long windows are the reminder of how far the theme has come. Cameco is up about 372% over five years and more than 950% over ten, the best ten-year record in the table.

Valuation: expensive on almost every multiple

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
Cameco (CCO)	153	61.96	—	16.05	7.61	108	48.81
NexGen (NXE)	—	—	—	—	4.77	—	9.53
Denison (DML)	—	—	—	—	11.69	—	6.20
Teck (TECK.B)	18.47	19.27	0.02	3.31	1.70	28.71	7.64
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	16.94	16.24	0.18	6.90	3.42	21.93	27.92
Average (incl. CCO)	62.81	32.49	0.10	8.75	5.84	52.79	20.02

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes CCO; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

This is the tension. Cameco trades at 153x trailing earnings and about 62x forward, against roughly 17–18x for Agnico Eagle and Teck. Its price-to-sales ratio of about 16x is double the group average near 8.8x, and its price-to-book of about 7.6x sits above the 5.8x average. NexGen and Denison have no earnings or meaningful sales, so only their book and cash multiples show. On almost every column, Agnico and Teck are the cheapest names, which is what established producers with large profits usually look like.

The other catch is free cash flow. At about 108x price to free cash flow, Cameco is the most expensive name on the table, against a 53x average and about 22x for Agnico. The weak Westinghouse quarter flatters none of this. Investors are paying for the Westinghouse stake and future contracts, not today’s profits. If a public Westinghouse price confirms the stake’s value, or contract prices lift earnings, the multiples would compress; if not, the stock has little support from current earnings.

Dividend: a token payout for now

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
Cameco (CCO)	$0.24	0.19%	—
NexGen (NXE)	$0.00	—	—
Denison (DML)	$0.00	—	—
Teck (TECK.B)	$0.50	0.53%	9.8%
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	$2.24	0.82%	14.5%
Average (incl. CCO)	$0.99	0.51%	12.1%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes CCO; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

Cameco pays C$0.24 a share a year, an indicated yield of about 0.19%, the lowest of the three payers here. Teck yields about 0.5% and Agnico about 0.8%, both on payouts below 15% of earnings; NexGen and Denison pay nothing. The screener shows no usable payout ratio for Cameco, so it is left blank. Scotiabank expects Cameco’s free cash flow to rise sharply by 2028, and a partial Westinghouse sale could fund bigger payouts, but at this price Cameco is not an income stock.

Analyst view: the Street sees 44% upside

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Cameco (CCO)	Strong buy	$124.69	$179.61	+44.0%	15
NexGen (NXE)	Strong buy	$13.11	$19.88	+51.6%	8
Denison (DML)	Strong buy	$3.73	$5.94	+59.2%	5
Teck (TECK.B)	Neutral	$94.03	$85.36	−9.2%	8
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	Buy	$273.91	$295.33	+7.8%	9
Average (incl. CCO)	—	—	—	+30.7%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Target 1Y: MarketBeat TSX consensus pages, pulled 2026-09-26 ~06:50 ET (CCO 15, NXE 8, DML 5, TECK.B 8, AEM 9 analysts; none under 5). Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

The Street is firmly bullish. The TSX screener rates Cameco a Strong buy, and MarketBeat’s consensus target is C$179.61 from 15 analysts, about 44% above the September 24 close (the range runs C$147 to C$202). On September 24, TD set a C$190 target with a Buy, and RBC set C$184 with an Outperform. NexGen and Denison show similar or larger upside on paper, around 52% and 59%. Teck is the outlier, with a Neutral rating and a consensus target about 9% below its price. The message: analysts think the uranium selloff has overshot, but the targets lean heavily on the Westinghouse value being realized.

Why it matters: from uranium miner to fuel-cycle platform

The old narrative was Cameco as a uranium miner riding the price of U3O8. The new narrative is a nuclear fuel-cycle platform: mines, conversion, enrichment offtake, and 49% of Westinghouse, whose technology runs more than half of the world’s operating reactors.

A Westinghouse IPO near the reported range would give that stake a public market price for the first time, and that matters most to growth investors. Income investors are still waiting for the bigger payouts analysts expect as free cash flow rises. The open question is how much of a US$24B+ stake value is already reflected in a C$54.3B market value.

Bull case

1. A public price for Westinghouse. A listing could re-rate Cameco’s 49% stake, and any sale proceeds could fund buybacks or higher dividends.
2. Demand locked in across the fuel cycle. Long-term uranium contracts plus the Global Laser Enrichment offtake give Cameco a role from mine to enriched fuel.
3. Balance-sheet room. With about C$1.1B of cash against about C$1.0B of debt, Cameco can wait for better contract prices.

Bear case and risks

1. Priced for a lot of good news. A 153x trailing P/E and about 108x price to free cash flow leave little room for disappointment.
2. IPO risk. Recent nuclear listings trade below their offer prices, Holtec postponed its offering, and a U.S. government participation interest in Westinghouse could dilute the owners.
3. Operations. Flooded supply routes and disruptions at Key Lake, McArthur River and Cigar Lake show how fragile northern Saskatchewan logistics can be.

What to watch

1. Westinghouse’s public IPO filing, possibly in October. The valuation, the share count and how much Cameco sells.
2. Cameco’s Q3 2026 results. The date was not yet confirmed; watch Westinghouse’s contribution and production versus the 19.5–21.5M lb guidance.
3. A final investment decision on the Kentucky laser enrichment plant, which would turn the offtake deal into a real revenue line.
4. Long-term uranium contract prices and whether analysts hold targets near C$180 after the filing.

Bottom line

Cameco has earned its place as the TSX’s main way to own the nuclear buildout: real uranium revenue, a long-term contract book, a new enrichment offtake and 49% of Westinghouse. The reported IPO target would make that stake worth more than US$24B on paper. The issue is price: at 153x trailing earnings and about 108x free cash flow, the stock already assumes a lot goes right, even after a 13% one-month drop. The next test is the Westinghouse filing itself, and whether the valuation survives contact with public investors.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — the Westinghouse windfall
• 0:23 What happened — IPO report, enrichment deal, Q2
• 1:13 Overview — Cameco vs uranium & mining peers
• 1:38 Performance heatmap
• 2:00 Valuation — 153x earnings
• 2:28 Dividends
• 2:48 Analyst ratings & price targets
• 3:16 Why it matters
• 3:40 Bull case
• 3:59 Bear case
• 4:24 What to watch + close

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-09-25.csv, 929 rows; September 24 close; CAD). Peers are same-sector (Non-energy minerals): NexGen and Denison as uranium developers, Teck and Agnico Eagle as the sector’s largest producer benchmarks; IsoEnergy was skipped as sub-C$1B. Average rows include CCO and skip blank cells; the Dividends average is the video’s figure, taken over the three payers (CCO, TECK.B, AEM). Blanks mark metrics that are not meaningful: NexGen and Denison PEG (negative earnings), Denison P/S (about C$4M of pre-production revenue), and Cameco’s payout ratio (the screener’s 0.0 conflicts with its C$0.24 dividend). Target 1Y is MarketBeat TSX consensus pulled 2026-09-26 (CCO 15, NXE 8, DML 5, TECK.B 8, AEM 9 analysts; none under 5). Q2 figures are from Cameco’s July 31, 2026 release; IPO figures from the Bloomberg report as relayed by IPO Watch and The Northern Miner.

Sources

• Bloomberg report on the Westinghouse IPO, September 18, 2026, via IPO Watch (September 19) and The Northern Miner (September 21)
• Cameco news release on Westinghouse’s confidential draft registration statement, July 31, 2026
• World Nuclear News (September 16, 2026) and ANS Nuclear Newswire (September 22, 2026) — Global Laser Enrichment offtake
• Cameco Q2 2026 results release, July 31, 2026
• The Globe and Mail — Scotiabank on Cameco’s free cash flow and dividend outlook
• MarketBeat — TSX consensus for CCO, NXE, DML, TECK.B and AEM (pulled 2026-09-26); TD and RBC target changes (September 24, 2026)
• TSX screener merge September 25, 2026 (929 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: Cameco logo (File:Cameco Logo.svg, public domain); “2025-03-11 - Waynesboro, Georgia, USA - Plant Vogtle” by Kai NeSmith (CC BY 4.0); “NRC Chair Christopher Hanson Visits the Cigar Lake uranium Mine in Canada” by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (CC BY 2.0). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com