Sector Snapshots

The Big Six printed another beat-heavy quarter and still outrun the TSX on a one-year tape, but Street targets sit close to the market, so the next move hinges on a Bank of Canada that just hiked to 2.50%, credit as unemployment rises to 6.7%, and capital return, not another easy re-rating.

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Life insurers have outrun the TSX over the past year, but Sun Life’s 10% drop on MFS outflows and U.S. disability losses shows how fast a leader can reset, while Fairfax jumped on its third quarter and the Street’s upside is concentrated in P&C.

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The pipes still pay — the median indicated yield is about 4.3% — but the one-year leaders are the smaller names, and Pembina’s Pacific Link stake is a development option rather than cash flow.

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The median producer is still up about 55% in a year, but WTI fell 12.8% in the week to November 6 to about US$91 and the median stock lost 7.2% between the November 3 and November 9 screener files; record third-quarter cash flow at Suncor and bigger buybacks at Canadian Natural are the offset.

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Canadian utilities still pay about a 3.8% median yield, but the one-year tape lagged the TSX, and the Emera–Canadian Utilities–ATCO deal means three of these names are a merger spread, not a simple rate-base trade.

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Quebecor is the only large Canadian telecom that compounded over the past year; BCE, Rogers, TELUS and Cogeco are still digesting dividend resets and heavy spending, even after BCE and Cogeco bounced this week.

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Liquid Canadian software and tech are up a median of about 18% over the past month but still down over one year, Celestica gave back about 16% between the November 3 and November 9 screener files in an AI-hardware selloff, and several widely quoted targets are US-listing numbers that do not belong in a Canadian-dollar average.

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Gold stocks bounced hard in the week to November 9 as the metal recovered from a multi-month low, Kinross and Pan American are still down over the past month, the one-year median now edges the TSX’s approximate return, and several widely quoted targets are US-listing numbers that do not belong in a Canadian-dollar average.

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Copper miners are still up a median of about 24% over the past year, but every name in this set is down double digits over the past month (median −20.5%), Ivanhoe cut its Kamoa-Kakula outlook, and Teck’s row is stale because it is missing from the newest screener export.

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The median stock in this set is up about 29% over the past year, ahead of the TSX’s approximate return, but the tape is three businesses: rails with little room to the Canadian-dollar target, Waste Connections up on a beat whose Toronto target is the wrong panel, and Air Canada now well below the price it paid to buy back stock.

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The median REIT in this set lagged the TSX over the past year (median +5.2%), the last month was ahead of the index, and the Bank of Canada’s October 28 hike to 2.50% is the rate backdrop for a group whose accounting P/E is not the cash multiple.

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The median retailer now matches the TSX over the past year after a strong month, Canada Goose reaffirmed guidance with comparable direct-to-consumer sales down 7.5%, and two of the widely quoted targets are US-listing numbers that do not belong in a Canadian-dollar average.

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