Canadian retail stocks: Aritzia’s plan, Dollarama’s multiple, Metro’s year and which targets are CAD

Twelve liquid names — Loblaw, Couche-Tard, Dollarama, Restaurant Brands, George Weston, Metro, Aritzia, Empire, Canadian Tire, the North West Company, Pet Valu and Canada Goose — are about CA$363 billion of market value on the October 23, 2026 close. That sum double-counts Loblaw inside George Weston. Over the past month the peer median is about +7.5%, against an S&P/TSX Composite that was about +0.1% on the same exchange-close window. Over one year the median is about +15.9%, close to a Composite near +18.6%. The median hides the tails. Aritzia is up about 64% over the year, and the fiscal 2032 plan was published this morning, after this table’s close. Pet Valu is down about 44%. Canada Goose is down about 40%. Setup for this living note: a middle that almost matched the index, a growth plan that is not in the October 23 price, and a target column that has to stay in Canadian dollars.

Canadian retail snapshot: market cap, P/E, yield and returns vs the TSX

Metric	Peer set (12)	vs TSX (approx.)
Combined market cap	~CA$373.8B	—
Median trailing P/E	23.1x	—
Median forward P/E	18.4x	—
Median indicated yield	1.77%	—
Median 1M price return	+10.4%	TSX ~+0.1%
Median 1Y price return	+18.9%	TSX ~+18.6%

Screener as of November 9, 2026 (CAD; merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv, 2,564 rows). Peer set: L, ATD, DOL, QSR, WN, MRU, ATZ, EMP.A, CTC.A, NWC, PET, GOOS. Medians skip blank cells; P/E medians skip non-positive multiples. Not in the November 9 export, so their rows still carry the previous build’s values: QSR, CTC.A. The TSX column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build and was not re-pulled for this refresh.

November 9, 2026 refresh. Between the November 3 and November 9 screener files the median peer price moved +1.5%. Best: Canada Goose (+7.4%) and North West (+3.3%). Weakest: Empire (−1.4%) and George Weston (−0.4%). The snapshot and every peer table below are on the November 9 file. Commentary paragraphs between the tables were written on the October 25 file and quote those figures unless they give a later date.

This is not an income sector. The median yield of the payers is 1.72%. Dollarama yields 0.22%. Loblaw yields 0.86% on a post-split share. Canadian Tire at 3.51% and Restaurant Brands at 3.41% are the coupons. Trailing P/E runs from Pet Valu at 13.8x to Empire at 51.7x. Empire’s forward multiple is 14.1x, so the trailing figure is depressed earnings, not the operating multiple. Dollarama at 41.6x trailing and 40.3x forward is the premium. The median trailing multiple of 22.5x is the middle of a set that includes both.

What is driving Canadian retail stocks: a five-year plan, a discount beat and a grocer’s strike

November 9, 2026 update. Canada Goose reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 on November 5: revenue up 5.9% to 274.0 million, comparable DTC sales down 7.5%, and fiscal 2027 guidance reaffirmed at low-single-digit revenue growth with an 11–12% adjusted EBIT margin. Between the November 3 and November 9 screener files the peer median price moved +1.5% (Canada Goose +7.4%, North West +3.3%; Empire −1.4%, George Weston −0.4%). Unemployment rose 0.2 points to 6.7% in October, and the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50% on October 28. Calendar items below dated November 3–8 have since reported; this update summarizes only the results named here.

1. October 27, 2026 — Aritzia’s fiscal 2032 plan, before the open, and not in this table. The company set a fiscal 2032 net-revenue target of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, a 15% to 17% compound annual growth rate off the fiscal 2027 outlook, adjusted EBITDA of 21% of net revenue, and EPS growth faster than revenue. North America digital revenue is targeted at about $4.1 billion to $4.5 billion. The plan assumes 220 boutiques by fiscal 2032, 12 to 14 new US boutiques a year, about $2 billion of net capital spending over five years, and about $2 billion of buybacks, half of free cash flow. Amounts in that release are Canadian dollars unless marked otherwise. The webcast was scheduled for 10:15 a.m. ET. The $155.15 in the table is the October 23 close. The one-year return is already +63.6%. The one-month return is +30.0%, which includes the October 9 jump the October 10 brief wrote up, from the October 8 close of $123.28 to $146.91.

2. October 8, 2026 — the quarter that jump was about. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 net revenue was $1.17 billion, up 44.1%. Comparable sales were up 34.5%. US revenue was $779.4 million, up 60.3%, 66.6% of the total. Adjusted EPS was $1.31. Reported net income of $201.7 million included about $97 million of US tariff refunds; the October 10 brief is the write-up. The full-year outlook stayed at $4.78 billion to $4.88 billion of revenue in the investor-day release’s footnotes, growth of about 29% to 32%, and that outlook excludes further tariff refunds. Trailing net income on this page is about $592 million, against $457 million in the October 8 screener the brief used. Trailing P/E here is 31.3x on a higher price. The multiple did not expand one-for-one with the stock because the quarter is in the trailing earnings.

3. September 16, 2026 — Dollarama raises the Canadian guide. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 sales were $2,026.6 million, up 17.6%. Canadian comparable store sales were up 5.4%. Diluted EPS was $1.29, against $1.16. Canada had 1,734 stores at August 2, up from 1,665 a year earlier. The Canadian comparable-sales guide for fiscal 2027 moved to 4.0% to 4.5% from 3.0% to 4.0%, and net new Canadian stores to 65 to 75 from 60 to 70. Other Canadian ranges were unchanged. Australia is still expected to post a net loss for the year. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.1200, payable November 6 to holders of record October 9. That is $0.48 annualized. The table’s DPS field is about $0.42, and the indicated yield on $207.45 is 0.22%. The October 23 close is 16% above the start of the one-month window. The CAD target is CA$216.06 from 12 analysts, +4.2%. The one-year return is only +11.7%. The multiple did the work before this year.

4. August 12, 2026 — Metro’s Laval quarter, still the one-year gap inside grocery. Third-quarter sales were $6,970.4 million, up 1.4%. Food same-store sales were −1.5%. Pharmacy same-store sales were +4.8%. Net earnings were $211.3 million, down 34.6%. The company estimated the Laval produce-distribution labour conflict cost $66 million after tax, $0.32 a share, and it did not adjust earnings for that. The one-year return in this table is +3.7%. Loblaw, the other large grocer, is +18.5%. Empire is +5.8%. Metro is the grocer that did not compound. Loblaw said on October 22 that it will report third-quarter results on November 19 at about 6:30 a.m. ET, with a call at 10:00 a.m. The second-quarter headline, from the July 30 call, was revenue growth of 4.1% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 11.9%. The quarterly dividend declared for payment on October 1 was $0.155183. Four times that is about $0.62. The table’s annual DPS field is about $0.55, and the indicated yield is 0.86% on $68.67. Loblaw’s four-for-one split was effective August 18, 2025. The ten-year return below is split-adjusted.

5. October 9, 2026 — Couche-Tard’s Irving agreement, with Żabka still the larger bet. The October 15 brief is the write-up. The Irving deal is the Québec and Ontario retail sites, fuel supply and cardlocks, with no price disclosed in that brief. The Żabka tender, launched July 31, was the larger number in the brief, about PLN 32.6 billion. Couche-Tard reports in US dollars. The table is the CAD field. The October 8 screener price in the brief was $77.11. The October 23 close is $83.33. Trailing P/E is 17.4x, still the low teens-to-high-teens multiple against Dollarama’s 42x. The CAD target is CA$99.13 from 12 analysts, +19%. There is no separate USD target page in this pull. MarketBeat’s NYSE address for ATD returns the same Canadian-dollar consensus.

6. What is on the calendar, and what this note leaves out. Restaurant Brands reports third-quarter results on October 29, with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Canada Goose reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 on November 5, before the open, call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Pet Valu reports third-quarter results on November 10 at about 6:30 a.m. ET, call at 8:30 a.m. NFI Group is about CA$3 billion and it makes buses. It is not a retailer, and it is not in the table. Gildan, Saputo, Premium Brands, Maple Leaf and BRP are manufacturers or food processors, not storefronts. MTY is about CA$0.7 billion. Leon’s ten-day volume is about 18,000 shares. Roots is a microcap. The Canadian Tire voting line trades about 300 shares a day. This table uses CTC.A. Richelieu is a distributor. The October 13 brief is linked below and is not a peer row.

Which Canadian retail stocks are leading and lagging

One month: Aritzia (+30.0%) leads, then Dollarama (+16.4%) and Pet Valu (+12.0%). Loblaw (+10.9%) is the grocer that moved. Restaurant Brands (+4.4%) is the laggard on this window, then Weston (+5.3%) and Couche-Tard (+6.2%). The median is about +7.5% because almost the whole set was up. The month was a retail tape, not a single-stock tape, with Aritzia on top of it.

One year: Aritzia (+63.6%) leads by a wide margin, then North West (+24.4%), Canadian Tire (+22.1%) and Weston (+20.2%). Loblaw (+18.5%) matched the TSX. Pet Valu (−43.9%) is the laggard, then Canada Goose (−39.9%). Metro (+3.7%) and Empire (+5.8%) are the grocery laggards against Loblaw. Dollarama (+11.7%) is a modest one-year return on a 42x multiple. The one-month leader and the one-year leader are the same stock. That was not true in transportation. The two apparel-and-specialty names at the bottom of the one-year list are also the two smallest market caps in the table.

Canadian retail peer comparison: size, performance, valuation, dividends and targets

Peer set: Loblaw (L), Couche-Tard (ATD), Dollarama (DOL), Restaurant Brands (QSR), George Weston (WN), Metro (MRU), Aritzia (ATZ), Empire (EMP.A), Canadian Tire (CTC.A), North West Company (NWC), Pet Valu (PET) and Canada Goose (GOOS). Three grocers and the parent that consolidates the largest of them, a convenience retailer, a dollar store, a restaurant franchisor, a general merchant, a northern retailer, a pet specialty chain, and two apparel names. Ordering is market cap on the October 23 close. The October 10 Aritzia brief used Dollarama, Canadian Tire, Couche-Tard, Loblaw and Pet Valu, and left Weston, Metro and Empire out to avoid three more grocers. This page is the sector, so the grocers are in. The October 15 Couche-Tard brief used Loblaw, Dollarama, Metro and Empire. Weston stays, with the double-count labelled. Restaurant Brands stays because it is liquid. North West stays because it is a retailer of about CA$2.7 billion with real volume.

Canadian retail overview: price, market cap, revenue and earnings

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Loblaw (L)	$69.45	$81.0B	$64.6B	$2.8B
Couche-Tard (ATD)	$83.20	$77.8B	$112.1B	$4.4B
Dollarama (DOL)	$215.49	$59.1B	$7.9B	$1.4B
Restaurant Brands (QSR)	$105.58	$48.0B	$13.8B	$1.8B
George Weston (WN)	$109.28	$41.5B	$65.2B	$1.0B
Metro (MRU)	$98.61	$20.8B	$22.5B	$899M
Aritzia (ATZ)	$155.00	$18.3B	$4.3B	$592M
Empire (EMP.A)	$49.39	$11.3B	$32.2B	$219M
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)	$204.59	$10.7B	$16.5B	$679M
North West (NWC)	$59.46	$2.8B	$2.6B	$142M
Pet Valu (PET)	$21.49	$1.5B	$1.2B	$99.2M
Canada Goose (GOOS)	$12.49	$1.2B	$1.5B	$56.9M
Average	—	$31.2B	$28.7B	$1.2B

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes every row. Not in the November 9 export, so their rows still carry the previous build’s values: QSR, CTC.A.

Couche-Tard’s CA$112 billion of revenue is fuel. The profit is CA$4.4 billion, the largest in the set, on a CA$76.5 billion market cap that is just under Loblaw’s CA$79.0 billion. Dollarama earns CA$1.4 billion on CA$7.9 billion of sales and is valued at CA$55.7 billion. That is the margin the multiple is paying for. Empire earns CA$219 million on CA$32.2 billion of sales. Aritzia earns CA$592 million on CA$4.3 billion. Canadian Tire earns CA$679 million on CA$16.5 billion and is valued at CA$10.7 billion, which is why it is the book-value name in the next table. As of March 16, 2026, Weston beneficially owned about 52.6% of Loblaw. Weston’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025 also had Weston at about 61.7% of Choice Properties. Choice is on the REIT page, not in this market-cap sum.

Canadian retail performance: returns from one month to ten years

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	YTD	1Y	5Y	10Y
Loblaw (L)	+12.3%	+10.6%	+15.7%	+12.0%	+20.7%	+190%	+434%
Couche-Tard (ATD)	+7.5%	−10.1%	+5.2%	+10.6%	+18.8%	+67%	+147%
Dollarama (DOL)	+15.9%	+12.2%	+23.2%	+4.7%	+19.1%	+273%	+545%
Restaurant Brands (QSR)	+4.4%	+4.6%	−3.4%	+15.2%	+16.0%	+64%	+130%
George Weston (WN)	+9.4%	+7.1%	+15.7%	+15.7%	+24.9%	+139%	+214%
Metro (MRU)	+10.9%	+9.6%	+11.0%	−0.3%	+3.8%	+54%	+141%
Aritzia (ATZ)	+28.8%	+8.4%	−0.6%	+31.2%	+60.1%	+218%	+781%
Empire (EMP.A)	+1.9%	+0.3%	+6.7%	+3.3%	−1.0%	+28%	+165%
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)	+8.9%	+6.4%	+9.8%	+21.5%	+22.1%	+37%	+118%
North West (NWC)	+9.9%	+20.0%	+17.1%	+21.8%	+27.6%	+70%	+136%
Pet Valu (PET)	+19.4%	+15.3%	+5.9%	−23.2%	−26.9%	−30%	−10%
Canada Goose (GOOS)	+15.1%	+3.6%	−22.9%	−30.6%	−28.6%	−78%	−48%
Average	+12.0%	+7.3%	+7.0%	+6.8%	+13.0%	+86%	+229%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · price returns. Bold = leader on 1M and on 1Y. Average skips blanks.

Dollarama’s five-year +275% and ten-year +525% are the long compound, against a one-year +11.7% and a year-to-date +1.0%. Aritzia’s ten-year +741% is the other compound, and unlike Dollarama it is also the one-year chart. Canada Goose’s five-year −77% and Pet Valu’s five-year −28% are the specialty drawdowns. Pet Valu’s one-month +12.0% is a bounce inside a one-year −44%. Couche-Tard’s three-month −5.8% is the dip the October 15 brief described, and the one-month +6.2% is the Irving tape after it. Metro’s year-to-date −0.6% is the Laval year in one cell.

Canadian retail valuation: P/E, forward P/E, price to book and price to sales

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF
Loblaw (L)	29.4	26.0	1.75	1.26	7.32	17.0
Couche-Tard (ATD)	17.4	18.3	0.65	0.67	3.26	15.0
Dollarama (DOL)	43.2	40.3	4.04	7.30	39.28	39.3
Restaurant Brands (QSR)	22.0	18.6	0.79	3.61	8.73	22.4
George Weston (WN)	42.6	21.0	—	0.63	11.03	9.7
Metro (MRU)	23.5	19.3	—	0.93	2.96	19.6
Aritzia (ATZ)	31.3	27.1	0.28	4.12	11.83	27.7
Empire (EMP.A)	50.6	13.6	—	0.35	2.16	8.5
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)	16.0	14.4	—	0.65	1.78	17.8
North West (NWC)	20.3	17.1	7.52	1.07	3.38	22.1
Pet Valu (PET)	14.9	13.0	1.96	1.20	15.87	10.0
Canada Goose (GOOS)	22.7	13.3	1.11	0.73	2.32	13.5
Average	27.8	20.2	2.26	1.88	9.16	18.5

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. Average skips blanks; one large multiple can dominate a column average, so read the medians in the snapshot.

Couche-Tard at 17.4x trailing and 0.69x sales is the large cheap name, and the cheapness is partly fuel in the revenue. Canadian Tire at 16.0x trailing, 14.4x forward and 1.78x book is the cheap name that is not a fuel retailer. Pet Valu at 13.8x and 12.5x is cheaper still, on a stock that is down 44% over the year. Dollarama at 41.6x and 40.3x, and 7.15x sales, is the premium that did not come in when the one-year return was only 12%. Aritzia at 31.3x trailing and 29.5x forward, with a PEG of 0.30, is the growth multiple the October 10 brief described at 32x before the jump. The PEG is low because trailing earnings grew fast, including the tariff refund the brief flagged. Empire at 51.7x trailing and 14.1x forward is a depressed trailing year. Use the forward column. Weston at 41.3x trailing and 22.7x forward is the parent, not a second Loblaw multiple. Loblaw itself is 29.1x and 27.0x. Canada Goose at 10.9x forward is the low forward multiple on a stock down 40% over the year. The earnings estimate is doing work the trailing 20.5x does not show.

Canadian retail dividends: indicated yield and payout ratio

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield (ind.)	Payout ratio
Loblaw (L)	$0.55	0.88%	24.3%
Couche-Tard (ATD)	$0.84	1.02%	18.0%
Dollarama (DOL)	$0.42	0.22%	9.0%
Restaurant Brands (QSR)	$3.41	3.41%	75.1%
George Weston (WN)	$1.17	1.15%	46.5%
Metro (MRU)	$1.48	1.63%	37.8%
Aritzia (ATZ)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Empire (EMP.A)	$0.88	1.92%	92.0%
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)	$7.13	3.51%	56.0%
North West (NWC)	$1.62	2.90%	55.1%
Pet Valu (PET)	$0.49	2.39%	35.2%
Canada Goose (GOOS)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Average	$1.50	1.90%	37.4%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. DPS is annual; yield is indicated. Payout is trailing; negative payouts show as — and are left out of the average.

Empire’s 92% payout is the coverage on the depressed trailing profit, the same profit that produces the 51.7x trailing P/E. Dollarama’s 9% payout and 0.22% yield are what a $207 stock does to a small dividend. Canadian Tire’s 3.51% is the income in general merchandise, with a 56% payout. Restaurant Brands at 3.41% and a 75% payout is the franchise coupon. Loblaw at 0.86% is a total-return grocer after the split, not a bond proxy. Metro at 1.65% yields more than Loblaw and returned less over the year.

Canadian retail analyst targets: ratings, one-year targets and upside

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Loblaw (L)	Buy	$69.45	CA$73.00	+5.1%	9
Couche-Tard (ATD)	Buy	$83.20	CA$99.13	+19.1%	12
Dollarama (DOL)	Buy	$215.49	CA$216.06	+0.3%	12
Restaurant Brands (QSR)	Buy	$105.58	CA$84.00	−20.4%	3
George Weston (WN)	Buy	$109.28	CA$115.83	+6.0%	5
Metro (MRU)	Neutral	$98.61	CA$104.00	+5.5%	9
Aritzia (ATZ)	Strong buy	$155.00	CA$177.53	+14.5%	17
Empire (EMP.A)	Neutral	$49.39	CA$53.56	+8.4%	9
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)	Neutral	$204.59	CA$204.00	−0.3%	9
North West (NWC)	Strong buy	$59.46	CA$60.67	+2.0%	4
Pet Valu (PET)	Strong buy	$21.49	CA$24.89	+15.8%	9
Canada Goose (GOOS)	Neutral	$12.49	CA$12.50	+0.1%	2
Average	—	—	CA$102.10	+4.7%	—

Rating = screener analyst rating on the November 9, 2026 file. Target 1Y and analyst counts are the MarketBeat TSE consensus figures (CAD) pulled October 27, 2026, not re-pulled in bulk for this refresh (Royal Bank spot-checked November 9, unchanged). Upside is the October 27 target versus the November 9 screener price. The dollar average mixes very different share prices; read the upside column.

Dollarama and Canadian Tire have little Canadian-dollar room. Dollarama +4.2% to CA$216.06 from 12, on a 41.6x trailing multiple. Canadian Tire −0.3% to CA$204.00 from 9. The general merchant’s one-year return of +22% used up the target. Loblaw +6.3% to CA$73.00 from 9 and Empire +6.2% to CA$53.56 from 9 are the other tight CAD gaps among the grocers. Metro still has +8.0% to CA$104 from 9, which is a target on the Laval year, not a target that has been run over.

Couche-Tard, Aritzia and Pet Valu are the CAD gaps with a full panel. Couche-Tard +19% to CA$99.13 from 12. Aritzia +14% to CA$177.53 from 17, and that target was pulled before this morning’s fiscal 2032 plan. The range on the page is C$140 to C$204. Pet Valu +25% to CA$24.89 from 9, on the stock that is down 44% over the year. Weston +9.4% to CA$115.83 from 5 is the parent, in the average because five analysts and a range of C$102 to C$134 clear the bar.

Restaurant Brands is the currency trap. The TSE page is CA$84.00 from 3 analysts, −20% versus $105.58, and the high and the low are both C$84.00. The NYSE page is US$83.52 from 25 analysts, range US$78 to US$92. The October 23 NYSE close is US$75.34. That USD target is about +10.9% above the US price. The October 23 TSX close of $105.58 is about 1.40 times the NYSE close, so the two prices are one price. The two targets are not. C$84 is almost the same digits as US$83.52. A reader who treats C$84 as “the target” thinks the stock is a fifth too expensive. The liquid panel, in US dollars, is a low-double-digit gap above the US price. The US figure is not converted and not averaged.

Canada Goose is the same kind of trap, with the sign flipped. The TSE page is CA$12.50 from 2 analysts, +11% versus $11.28. The NYSE page is US$11.78 from 9 analysts, range US$9 to US$18. Versus the October 23 NYSE close of US$8.06, that is about +46%. The TSX close of $11.28 is about 1.40 times US$8.06. The CAD target is not 1.40 times the USD target. MarketBeat’s own label on the NYSE page is Reduce. The Neutral in the table is the TradingView mark, not that label. Two analysts are not nine. The US figure is not in the average.

North West at +8.1% to CA$60.67 from 4 is shown and kept out. Four is not five. The one-year return of +24% is in the performance table either way.

How the grocers differ from the franchisor, the dollar store and apparel

Loblaw, Metro and Empire are the food retailers. Loblaw matched the TSX over the year and yields under 1%. Metro did not match the TSX, and the Laval quarter is the operating reason already on the record. Empire’s trailing multiple is the depressed year. The forward multiple is 14x. Weston is the parent, about 52.6% of Loblaw as of March 16, and it is also the majority holder of Choice Properties on the REIT page. Adding the market caps double-counts the grocer.

Couche-Tard is convenience and fuel, the largest revenue line in the table, a 17x earnings multiple, and a 19% CAD gap from twelve analysts. Dollarama is the compounder at 42x, with the September guide raised and the target 4% above the price. Restaurant Brands is Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse, liquid on both the TSX and the NYSE, and the target that has to be read in US dollars. Canadian Tire is the general merchant on its target, yielding 3.5%. North West is the northern and rural retailer, a one-year leader inside this set after Aritzia, with a four-analyst page.

Aritzia is the growth name, the one-month and one-year leader, and the company that published a fiscal 2032 plan this morning. Pet Valu and Canada Goose are the specialty drawdowns. One has a nine-analyst CAD target 25% above the price. The other has a nine-analyst USD target 46% above the US price, and a two-analyst CAD page that should not be averaged with Loblaw.

Bull case for Canadian retail stocks

1. The one-month tape beat the TSX, and the one-year median almost matched it. A median month of about +7.5% against a Composite at about +0.1%, and a one-year median of about +16% against about +19%, is a sector that participated. It is not the transportation median that matched exactly, and it is not a sector that was left behind.

2. Couche-Tard’s CAD gap is twelve analysts, at a multiple the dollar store does not have. CA$99.13 is +19% above $83.33. Trailing P/E is 17.4x against Dollarama’s 41.6x. The Irving agreement is the small deal. The brief’s Żabka tender is the one that can change the earnings. The target is a Canadian-dollar page with a range, not a single-number print.

3. Aritzia’s seventeen-analyst target was still above the October 23 price, and the plan is a separate document. CA$177.53 is +14% above $155.15. The fiscal 2032 revenue range is $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. The table does not include this morning’s reaction. The bull case is that the multiple of about 30x forward is the price of a plan the company just put a number on. The bear case is the next paragraph.

Bear case and risks for Canadian retail stocks

1. Aritzia’s chart has already done a 64% year, and the October 23 price is before anyone trades the new plan. A stock up 30% in a month can mean the quarter was good and the entry is late. The PEG of 0.30 uses trailing growth that includes the tariff refund. The investor-day targets are forward-looking. They are not trailing earnings.

2. The Toronto target on Restaurant Brands is a trap, and Canada Goose’s CAD page is two analysts. C$84 with no range, against a US$83.52 target that means +11% on the NYSE and −20% if you use it as Canadian dollars, will produce a fake “overvalued by a fifth” headline. Canada Goose’s +46% USD gap and +11% CAD gap are not the same opinion. Averaging either TSE print into Loblaw’s target is how a sector upside becomes nonsense.

3. Dollarama is priced for the guide it just raised, and two specialty names are down for a reason until the quarter says otherwise. A 4% gap to a twelve-analyst target, at 40x forward earnings, needs the 4.0% to 4.5% Canadian comparable-sales range to hold. Pet Valu’s −44% year and Canada Goose’s −40% year are not a screen glitch. Empire’s 92% payout is the depressed trailing profit, not a generous policy. Metro’s food same-store sales were negative in the quarter that is still the latest one on the record.

What to watch next for Canadian retail stocks: the Aritzia reaction, then October 29

1. October 27, 2026 — Aritzia’s investor day, after this table. The plan is the release at 7:00 a.m. ET. The webcast was set for 10:15 a.m. ET. The seventeen-analyst target of CA$177.53 is the pre-plan page. The next useful comparison is that target against wherever the stock closes after the room has heard it, not against the October 23 price alone.

2. October 29, before the open — Restaurant Brands, call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Read the NYSE target of US$83.52 from 25 analysts against the NYSE price, not C$84 against the TSX price. The October 23 NYSE close is US$75.34.

3. November 5, before the open — Canada Goose, call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The nine-analyst USD target is US$11.78, about +46% versus the October 23 NYSE close of US$8.06. The two-analyst CAD page is not the panel.

4. November 10 — Pet Valu, about 6:30 a.m. ET, call at 8:30 a.m. The CAD target is CA$24.89 from 9, +25% above $19.85. The one-year return is −43.9%. The quarter is the test of whether 12.5x forward earnings is the trough multiple or the multiple of a smaller business.

5. November 19 — Loblaw, about 6:30 a.m. ET, call at 10:00 a.m. The grocer that matched the TSX over the year, at 29x trailing earnings, with a nine-analyst target only 6% above $68.67. Weston’s results are the consolidation of that print plus Choice. They are not a second grocery quarter.

Related StockSummarizer videos and briefs

• Aritzia — the second-quarter beat and the raised outlook · Watch on YouTube
• Couche-Tard — the Irving agreement and Żabka · Watch on YouTube
• Richelieu — a distributor, not a banner in this table · Watch on YouTube

Dollarama, Loblaw, Metro, Empire, Canadian Tire, Restaurant Brands, Weston, North West, Pet Valu and Canada Goose are not in the coverage log yet. The Aritzia and Couche-Tard briefs use the October 8 screener. The tables on this page are the October 23 closes. Where a brief and this page both discuss a multiple, the date on the figure is the date of that source. Choice Properties, CT REIT and Crombie are on the REIT page. They are the landlords, not extra rows here.

Data notes: screener date, peer set and where the targets come from

November 9, 2026 refresh. The snapshot strip and every peer table now come straight from merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows): prices, market caps, LTM revenue and net income, returns, multiples, dividends and screener ratings. Average rows skip blanks. Analyst targets were not re-pulled in bulk: Target 1Y and analyst counts are still the MarketBeat TSE figures pulled October 27, 2026 (a November 9 spot-check of Royal Bank’s MarketBeat page showed the consensus unchanged at C$292.86 on 12 analysts, with the latest broker action dated September 3); upside compares those targets with the November 9 price. Rows for tickers missing from the November 9 export keep the previous build’s values and are named under the snapshot. The November 9 update paragraph uses the news and company releases listed under Sources, checked November 9, 2026; the TSX comparison column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build. The method notes below describe the October 27 build and still apply to the commentary written on it.

Prices are the October 23, 2026 TSX closes from Yahoo Finance chart history, split-adjusted for the return windows and unadjusted for the price column. Royal Bank’s close that day is $281.77, which matches the price printed from merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv on the banks page. The file itself is not in this checkout. Market cap, trailing P/E, P/S, P/B, P/FCF and PEG are TradingView Canada fields scaled by the October 23 close divided by the live close (the live close in this pull was the October 26 session). Revenue, net income, the annual DPS field and payout are the unscaled trailing fields. Yield is the live indicated-yield field scaled by the live close divided by the October 23 close. Forward P/E is October 23 price ÷ TradingView’s next-fiscal-year EPS consensus, pulled October 27, 2026. It is not the file’s forward-P/E cell. Performance is the exchange-close price return on the windows under the performance table, not the file’s Perf column. Loblaw’s returns are split-adjusted for the four-for-one split effective August 18, 2025. Peer rule: liquid Canadian storefront retail, plus Restaurant Brands — L, ATD, DOL, QSR, WN, MRU, ATZ, EMP.A, CTC.A, NWC, PET, GOOS. Excluded: NFI (bus manufacturer, about CA$3 billion), GIL, SAP, PBH, MFI and DOO (manufacturers and food processors), MTY (about CA$0.7 billion), LNF (thin volume), ROOT (microcap), CTC voting shares (about 300 shares a day), RCH (distribution). Average rows include all twelve names and skip blank cells. The price-to-book average includes Dollarama’s 37.81x. The one-year average is pulled down by Pet Valu and Canada Goose. The ten-year average excludes those two. Target 1Y is MarketBeat’s Canadian-listing consensus in CAD, pulled October 27, 2026. The average uses only the nine names with at least five analysts and a real range, and it averages the one-decimal upsides in the table. Restaurant Brands (CA$84.00, 3 analysts, high and low both C$84) is excluded. North West (4) and Canada Goose (2) are excluded. US-listing MarketBeat consensuses pulled the same day and not converted or averaged: Restaurant Brands US$83.52 (25 analysts, NYSE), Canada Goose US$11.78 (9, NYSE). USD upside in the text uses the October 23 NYSE close. Ratings are the TradingView recommendation mark, not MarketBeat’s label. Couche-Tard reports in US dollars; the table’s revenue and earnings are the CAD field. TSX Composite returns are Yahoo Finance chart history for ^GSPTSE on the same windows.

Sources for the quarters, the plan, targets and the screener

• Yahoo Finance chart history, TSX closes for October 23, 2026, and the window dates under the performance table; NYSE closes on October 23, 2026 for QSR and GOOS; ^GSPTSE on the same windows
• TradingView Canada scanner, pulled October 27, 2026, cross-checked against the published Royal Bank row from merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv (Royal Bank close $281.77 on October 23; live close in this pull $284.26 on October 26)
• Aritzia fiscal 2032 plan, October 27, 2026, and second-quarter fiscal 2027 results, October 8, 2026; investor-day notice October 20, 2026
• Dollarama second-quarter fiscal 2027 results, September 16, 2026
• Metro third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, August 12, 2026
• Loblaw second-quarter headline (revenue +4.1%, adjusted diluted EPS +11.9%) and the October 22, 2026 timing release for November 19; quarterly dividend of $0.155183 from the company’s dividend table; four-for-one split effective August 18, 2025, from the second-quarter report to shareholders
• Couche-Tard Irving agreement and Żabka tender — StockSummarizer brief dated 2026-10-15
• Restaurant Brands third-quarter timing, company release September 15, 2026
• Canada Goose second-quarter fiscal 2027 timing, company release October 15, 2026
• Pet Valu third-quarter timing, company release October 16, 2026
• Loblaw management proxy circular, George Weston at about 52.6% as of March 16, 2026; George Weston annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025 (Choice Properties about 61.7%)
• MarketBeat forecast pages pulled October 27, 2026: TSE for the twelve names in the table; NYSE for QSR and GOOS
• StockSummarizer coverage log — Aritzia brief 2026-10-10; Couche-Tard brief 2026-10-15; Richelieu brief 2026-10-13
• Canada Goose second-quarter fiscal 2027 results, November 5, 2026
• TD Securities, Weekly Bottom Line, November 6, 2026 (WTI, copper, gold, Canada 10-year yield); Baystreet.ca and Investcom TSX close reports, November 6, 2026 (S&P/TSX Composite 35,789.09, +0.48% on the week; October unemployment rate 6.7%)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons photographs, cropped to 16:9 and resized for this page. No AI-generated images were used. Company logos and video thumbnails on linked stock summaries keep the credits on those pages.

• Hero: “Dollarama Store on Yonge Street in Toronto, May 22 2026” by Dillan Payne, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. 730 Yonge Street.
• Loblaws: “Loblaws Supermarket in Heartland 2021” by Canmenwalker, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Heartland Town Centre.
• Couche-Tard: “Couche-Tard store front, Vieux-Limoilou” by Wilfredor, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Quebec City.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com