Canadian base-metals stocks: the one-year copper run, October’s drop, valuation and targets

Seven liquid names — Teck, First Quantum, Lundin Mining, Hudbay, Ivanhoe Mines, Capstone Copper and Ero Copper — are about CA$133 billion of market value on the October 23, 2026 close. Over the past month the peer median is about −18.6%, against an S&P/TSX Composite that was about +0.1% on the same exchange-close window. Over one year the median is about +39%, well ahead of a Composite near +18.6%. COMEX copper futures settled near US$6.48 a pound on October 23, down about 3% from about US$6.68 on September 23, and up about 27% from about US$5.08 on October 23, 2025. The stocks fell much harder than the metal over the month, and they beat the metal over the year. Setup for this living note: a one-year copper re-rating, an October air pocket, and two multiples that are not a normal producer P/E.

Canadian base-metals snapshot: market cap, P/E, yield and returns vs the TSX

Metric	Peer set (7)	vs TSX (approx.)
Combined market cap	~CA$134.5B	—
Median trailing P/E	16.2x	—
Median forward P/E	13.1x	—
Median indicated yield	0.35%	—
Median 1M price return	−20.5%	TSX ~+0.1%
Median 1Y price return	+24.3%	TSX ~+18.6%

Screener as of November 9, 2026 (CAD; merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv, 2,564 rows). Peer set: TECK.B, FM, LUN, HBM, IVN, CS, ERO. Medians skip blank cells; P/E medians skip non-positive multiples. Not in the November 9 export, so their rows still carry the previous build’s values: TECK.B. The TSX column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build and was not re-pulled for this refresh.

November 9, 2026 refresh. Between the November 3 and November 9 screener files the median peer price moved −2.1%. Best: First Quantum (+1.2%). Weakest: Ivanhoe Mines (−8.0%) and Capstone (−3.5%). The snapshot and every peer table below are on the November 9 file. Commentary paragraphs between the tables were written on the October 25 file and quote those figures unless they give a later date.

Four names — Ero, Lundin Mining, Hudbay and Teck — are up 39% to 46% over the year. Ivanhoe is down 37%. First Quantum’s one-year price is up 12% and its trailing profit is a CA$112 million loss. The income case is thin. Hudbay’s indicated yield is 0.13%.

What is driving Canadian base-metals stocks: a copper year, then a harder October

November 9, 2026 update. Copper fell about 2.7% in the week to November 6 (US$13,940 a tonne versus US$14,329 a week earlier, TD Securities) as risk appetite faded in an AI-led equity selloff. Between the November 3 and November 9 screener files the peer median price moved −2.1%: Ivanhoe Mines −8.0% after a Q3 miss and a cut to Kamoa-Kakula’s 2027 copper guidance to 300,000–350,000 tonnes with higher costs, and Capstone −3.5%, while First Quantum was +1.2%. Lundin Mining jumped 5.5% to C$29.59 on November 6. Teck beat third-quarter estimates but its shares fell; the Anglo American–Teck merger was reported on track with China antitrust approval still outstanding. Calendar items below dated November 3–8 have since reported; this update summarizes only the results named here.

1. The metal and the stocks parted company in October. From September 23 to October 23, COMEX copper futures fell about 3%, from about US$6.68 to about US$6.48 a pound. The peer-median stock fell about 19%. From October 16 to October 23 the futures move was smaller still, about US$6.53 to US$6.48. This table’s one-month drop is an equity de-rating on top of a small move in the screen price of copper. Over one year the futures are up about 27% and the median stock is up about 39%. The year was the re-rating. October gave a piece of the equity re-rating back.

2. October 28–29, 2026 — First Quantum, Teck and Capstone, on the calendar. TradingView’s earnings calendar, checked October 27, shows October 28 for First Quantum and October 29 for Teck and Capstone. Those are calendar dates, not a confirmation of the call time. First Quantum is the name with the trailing loss and an 83.5x forward multiple. Teck is the largest market cap and the only Neutral rating in the set, with +6.3% to the CAD target. Capstone is the pure copper producer at 13.1x trailing earnings. The three prints are the nearest fact. This note does not have a separate October operating release for any of them.

3. November 2–12 — Ero, Ivanhoe, Lundin Mining and Hudbay. The same calendar shows November 2 for Ero Copper, November 3 for Ivanhoe, November 4 for Lundin Mining and November 12 for Hudbay. Ero is the one-year leader and the only name in the set up over three months and six months. Ivanhoe is the one-year laggard, with CA$810 million of trailing revenue against a CA$13.1 billion market cap. Lundin Mining and Hudbay are the other two one-year winners above 40%.

4. First Quantum’s earnings are a loss, and the forward multiple is the tell. Trailing net income is −CA$112 million. There is no trailing P/E. The forward P/E of 83.5x is October 23’s price divided by a next-year EPS estimate that is still small. Free cash flow screens at 294x, which means cash flow is a sliver of the market cap. There is no dividend. The CAD target is CA$46.78 from 12 analysts, +40% above $33.44. A twelve-analyst gap on a loss-making copper producer is a recovery target. It is not evidence that 83x is a normal multiple.

5. Ivanhoe’s price is a claim about future sales. Trailing revenue is CA$810 million and trailing profit is CA$191 million, so the trailing P/E is 67.8x and the forward P/E is 41.3x. Price to sales is 16.2x, in royalty territory, on a miner. The one-year return is −37.1%. The CAD target is CA$14.72 from 10 analysts, +61% above $9.16. The Street’s gap and the one-year tape point in opposite directions. This page does not add a production forecast on top of those figures.

6. What this note leaves out on purpose. Cameco (about CA$48 billion) is uranium, files in the same broad minerals sector, and has its own brief. Nutrien is fertilizer. Centerra (about CA$5.5 billion) is filed under precious metals and is left off this page and the gold page, so a gold-primary name is not dropped into a copper table because the starting list mentioned it. Teck’s Class A line is the illiquid class; the table is the Class B. Gold, silver and the streamers are on the gold page. They are not repeated here.

Which Canadian base-metals stocks are leading and lagging

One month: nobody is green. Teck (−12.2%) fell the least, then Lundin Mining (−15.4%) and Ero (−18.3%). First Quantum (−26.0%) is the laggard, then Ivanhoe (−24.9%) and Capstone (−23.2%). The three smallest copper-pure names and the loss-making major took the harder hit. Teck, the diversified large cap, was the relative hold.

One year: Ero (+46.2%) leads, then Lundin Mining (+44.1%), Hudbay (+42.7%) and Teck (+39.2%). Ivanhoe (−37.1%) is the hole in the middle of the set. Capstone (−1.6%) is the other name under zero. First Quantum’s +11.9% one-year price return is a gain on a stock that still has a trailing loss. The median of +39% is those four winners. It is not Ivanhoe, and it is not the whole complex moving together.

Canadian base-metals peer comparison: size, performance, valuation, dividends and targets

Peer set: Teck Class B (TECK.B), First Quantum (FM), Lundin Mining (LUN), Hudbay (HBM), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN), Capstone Copper (CS) and Ero Copper (ERO). Teck is copper, zinc and steelmaking coal, not a single-commodity copper miner. The other six are base-metal producers, with Ivanhoe still early on revenue. Ordering is market cap on the October 23 close.

Canadian base-metals overview: price, market cap, revenue and earnings

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Teck (TECK.B)	$82.68	$40.6B	$14.0B	$2.5B
First Quantum (FM)	$32.78	$27.7B	$9.0B	$244M
Lundin Mining (LUN)	$29.59	$27.1B	$5.9B	$2.1B
Hudbay (HBM)	$29.49	$13.8B	$3.4B	$936M
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)	$8.28	$12.1B	$1.0B	$216M
Capstone (CS)	$10.99	$8.7B	$3.9B	$452M
Ero Copper (ERO)	$40.72	$4.5B	$1.7B	$543M
Average	—	$19.2B	$5.6B	$997M

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes every row. Not in the November 9 export, so their rows still carry the previous build’s values: TECK.B.

Teck is the only name with CA$14 billion of trailing revenue, and it earned CA$2.5 billion. Lundin Mining earned CA$2.1 billion on CA$5.9 billion of revenue, a higher margin than Teck’s, at a smaller market cap. First Quantum’s CA$7.9 billion of revenue produced a loss. Ivanhoe’s market cap is almost the same as Hudbay’s, on about a quarter of the revenue. Ero is the small cap that earned CA$430 million and led the one-year tape.

Canadian base-metals performance: returns from one month to ten years

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	YTD	1Y	5Y	10Y
Teck (TECK.B)	−12.2%	−1.8%	−0.8%	+25.9%	+39.2%	+140%	+203%
First Quantum (FM)	−16.3%	−23.1%	−3.0%	−12.9%	+13.6%	+17%	+175%
Lundin Mining (LUN)	−13.8%	−23.2%	−20.1%	−1.6%	+24.3%	+165%	+465%
Hudbay (HBM)	−20.5%	−21.4%	−11.4%	+5.6%	+33.0%	+248%	+391%
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)	−29.1%	−28.0%	−26.9%	−48.9%	−35.6%	−13%	+283%
Capstone (CS)	−21.5%	−27.6%	−10.7%	−18.6%	−7.9%	+117%	+1178%
Ero Copper (ERO)	−22.2%	−8.4%	+6.1%	+3.0%	+35.7%	+77%	+728%
Average	−19.4%	−19.1%	−9.5%	−6.8%	+14.6%	+107%	+489%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · price returns. Bold = leader on 1M and on 1Y. Average skips blanks.

Ero is the only name up over three months (+13.0%) and over six months (+12.8%). Everyone else is red on both of those windows. Year-to-date, Teck +25.9% and Hudbay +12.8% still show the year’s run. Ivanhoe is −42.1% year to date. First Quantum’s five-year return is only +14%, the weakest senior in the set, which fits a stock the market has spent years re-pricing around a troubled asset base rather than around a clean copper multiple. This page does not add a status report on any single mine beyond what the earnings and the price already show.

Canadian base-metals valuation: P/E, forward P/E, price to book and price to sales

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF
Teck (TECK.B)	16.2	13.1	0.01	2.84	1.49	25.2
First Quantum (FM)	112.3	15.2	0.40	3.00	1.66	—
Lundin Mining (LUN)	12.1	14.1	—	4.37	2.54	18.1
Hudbay (HBM)	12.6	12.0	0.10	3.55	1.92	37.9
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)	54.8	18.8	—	12.89	1.38	—
Capstone (CS)	18.7	9.4	4.04	2.26	1.60	54.8
Ero Copper (ERO)	7.9	5.9	0.04	2.56	2.25	12.8
Average	33.5	12.7	0.92	4.50	1.83	29.8

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. Average skips blanks; one large multiple can dominate a column average, so read the medians in the snapshot.

Ero is the cheap stock on forward earnings: 7.5x, with a trailing multiple of 10.3x. It is also the one-year leader, so the cheap forward number is what is left after a +46% year, not a stock the market ignored. Lundin Mining at 12.1x trailing is the other clean producer multiple, and the forward figure 15.8x does not compress. Teck at 16.2x / 13.1x and Capstone at 13.1x / 13.2x are the middle. Hudbay at 39.5x free cash flow against 13.1x earnings is the cash gap. First Quantum and Ivanhoe are the rows to keep out of a mental average. Book value is the quiet column: the set sits between 1.49x and 2.55x, and Ivanhoe’s 1.54x book does not look like its 16.2x sales.

Canadian base-metals dividends: indicated yield and payout ratio

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield (ind.)	Payout ratio
Teck (TECK.B)	$0.50	0.60%	9.8%
First Quantum (FM)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Lundin Mining (LUN)	$0.17	0.35%	4.5%
Hudbay (HBM)	$0.02	0.13%	1.3%
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Capstone (CS)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Ero Copper (ERO)	$0.00	—	0.0%
Average	$0.10	0.36%	2.2%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. DPS is annual; yield is indicated. Payout is trailing; negative payouts show as — and are left out of the average.

Teck’s 0.60% is the income line in this table, with a 9.8% payout. Anyone buying this set for a coupon is in the wrong sector. The gold page’s Barrick yield is more than triple Teck’s. The case here is the copper price and the multiple.

Canadian base-metals analyst targets: ratings, one-year targets and upside

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Teck (TECK.B)	Neutral	$82.68	CA$87.90	+6.3%	8
First Quantum (FM)	Strong buy	$32.78	CA$46.78	+42.7%	12
Lundin Mining (LUN)	Buy	$29.59	CA$39.82	+34.6%	14
Hudbay (HBM)	Strong buy	$29.49	CA$42.58	+44.4%	13
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)	Buy	$8.28	CA$14.72	+77.8%	10
Capstone (CS)	Strong buy	$10.99	CA$17.50	+59.2%	11
Ero Copper (ERO)	Buy	$40.72	CA$48.67	+19.5%	15
Average	—	—	CA$42.57	+40.6%	—

Rating = screener analyst rating on the November 9, 2026 file. Target 1Y and analyst counts are the MarketBeat TSE consensus figures (CAD) pulled October 27, 2026, not re-pulled in bulk for this refresh (Royal Bank spot-checked November 9, unchanged). Upside is the October 27 target versus the November 9 screener price. The dollar average mixes very different share prices; read the upside column.

Teck is the name with no gap to speak of. CA$87.90 from 8 analysts is +6.3% versus $82.68, and the rating is Neutral. The one-month leader is the stock the Street has already marked near the price. Ero at +15.8% from 15 analysts is the other tight target, on the one-year winner. The large gaps are Ivanhoe +61%, Capstone +56%, First Quantum +40%, Hudbay +38% and Lundin Mining +35%. Three of those five are the stocks that fell more than 23% in the month or, in Ivanhoe’s case, 37% over the year. The targets did not come down with the October tape. That can mean the October move was noise. It can also mean the targets are stale. The November prints are how that gets settled. This page does not have a separate US-listing consensus in the average. The TSE counts are the liquid Canadian pages.

How Teck and Ivanhoe differ from the copper producers

Teck is the diversified large cap: the most revenue, a Neutral rating, a small dividend, and the smallest upside in the set. The October drop was real and it was also the shallowest. Lundin Mining, Hudbay, Capstone and Ero are the operating copper and zinc names where trailing earnings exist and the forward multiple is in a range a producer comparison can use. Ero is the one that already ran. Capstone is the one that did not, over one year, and still shows a 56% CAD gap.

First Quantum is a large copper business with a trailing loss and a free-cash-flow multiple that should not be averaged with Ero’s 20x. Ivanhoe is a large market cap on a small income statement. Both have double-digit analyst counts and large CAD gaps. Both are a different bet from Teck at 13x forward earnings.

Bull case for Canadian base-metals stocks

1. The one-year winners are still winners, and copper is up over the year. Ero, Lundin Mining, Hudbay and Teck are up about 39% to 46%. COMEX copper is up about 27% over the same window. The October equity drop of about 19% at the median happened against a copper move of about 3%.

2. The clean multiples are not heroic. Ero at 7.5x forward, Teck at 13.1x, Capstone at 13.2x and Hudbay at 14.4x are producer math. Lundin Mining’s trailing 12.1x is in that neighbourhood even though the forward figure is 15.8x.

3. The CAD targets have analyst counts. Every row in the target table has at least eight analysts, and five of the seven still show 35% or more to the average. That is a different shape from the gold royalties, where the gap on Franco-Nevada is 12%, and from the Canadian banks, where several names sit on the target.

Bear case and risks for Canadian base-metals stocks

1. October was an equity event. A 3% dip in the copper screen price and a 19% dip in the median stock means the stocks can fall without a copper crash. Another month like that does not need a new low in the metal.

2. Two multiples will wreck an average. First Quantum at 83.5x forward and 294x free cash flow, and Ivanhoe at 67.8x trailing and 16.2x sales, are in the table so the loss and the thin revenue are visible. They are not the sector multiple. The snapshot uses the median for that reason. The ten-year average is Capstone’s +1,392%.

3. Teck and Ero do not have much Canadian-dollar room. +6.3% and +15.8% are what is left after the year they had. A target that sat still while the stock fell is not the same thing as a target on a stock that has already arrived. The November calendar will show which one this is.

What to watch next for Canadian base-metals stocks: October 28, then Ivanhoe’s week

1. October 28, 2026 — First Quantum, on TradingView’s calendar. The loss-making major. The question is whether the next-year earnings estimate behind the 83.5x forward multiple moves, and whether the stock is still the month’s worst name after the print.

2. October 29 — Teck and Capstone. The Neutral large cap with +6% of gap, and the copper producer at 13x with +56% of gap. Same morning on the calendar, opposite setups.

3. November 2 — Ero. November 3 — Ivanhoe. November 4 — Lundin Mining. November 12 — Hudbay. Ero is the leader the Street has mostly priced. Ivanhoe is the revenue gap. Lundin Mining is the one-year winner whose three-month return is −18.6%.

4. COMEX copper against the US$6.48 October 23 settlement. The stocks overshot the metal on the way down in October. The next useful check is whether they overshoot it on the way back, or whether the de-rating sticks through the results.

5. Target refreshes after those prints. A +36% average upside that survives the November numbers is a different fact from a +36% average that was set before a 19% month.

Related StockSummarizer videos and briefs

None of these seven tickers is in the coverage log yet. Cameco is the minerals name that is, and it is uranium, so it stays off this peer set:

• Cameco — the Westinghouse note · Watch on YouTube

The gold page covers Barrick and links the Barrick and Lundin Gold briefs. Those stocks are not in this table.

Data notes: screener date, peer set and where the targets come from

November 9, 2026 refresh. The snapshot strip and every peer table now come straight from merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows): prices, market caps, LTM revenue and net income, returns, multiples, dividends and screener ratings. Average rows skip blanks. Analyst targets were not re-pulled in bulk: Target 1Y and analyst counts are still the MarketBeat TSE figures pulled October 27, 2026 (a November 9 spot-check of Royal Bank’s MarketBeat page showed the consensus unchanged at C$292.86 on 12 analysts, with the latest broker action dated September 3); upside compares those targets with the November 9 price. Rows for tickers missing from the November 9 export keep the previous build’s values and are named under the snapshot. The November 9 update paragraph uses the news and company releases listed under Sources, checked November 9, 2026; the TSX comparison column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build. The method notes below describe the October 27 build and still apply to the commentary written on it.

Prices are the October 23, 2026 TSX closes from Yahoo Finance chart history. Royal Bank’s close that day is $281.77, which matches the price printed from merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv on the banks page. The file itself is not in this checkout. Market cap, trailing P/E, P/S, P/B, P/FCF and PEG are TradingView Canada fields scaled by the October 23 close divided by the live close (the live close in this pull was the October 26 session). Revenue, net income, the annual DPS field and payout are the unscaled trailing fields. Yield is the live indicated-yield field scaled by the live close divided by the October 23 close. Forward P/E is October 23 price ÷ TradingView’s next-fiscal-year EPS consensus, pulled October 27, 2026. It is not the file’s forward-P/E cell. Performance is the exchange-close price return on the windows under the performance table, not the file’s Perf column. Peer rule: liquid copper, zinc and bulk names — TECK.B, FM, LUN, HBM, IVN, CS, plus ERO as the closest liquid copper peer after Centerra was dropped. Excluded: TECK.A (illiquid class), CG (precious-metals filer), CCO (uranium), NTR (fertilizer), and the gold set. Average rows include all seven names and skip blank cells. The trailing-P/E average includes Ivanhoe’s 67.8x. The forward and free-cash-flow averages include First Quantum. The ten-year average is dominated by Capstone. Ero’s ten-year cell is blank. Target 1Y is MarketBeat’s Canadian-listing consensus in CAD, pulled October 27, 2026. All seven counts are at least eight, so all seven are in the average. The upside average is the average of the one-decimal upsides in the table. No US-listing target is in the average. Ratings are the TradingView recommendation mark, not MarketBeat’s label. Several companies report in US dollars; revenue and earnings are the CAD field. COMEX copper is the HG=F settlement. TSX Composite returns are Yahoo Finance chart history for ^GSPTSE on the same windows.

Sources for the copper price, the calendar, targets and the screener

• Yahoo Finance chart history, TSX closes for October 23, 2026, and the window dates under the performance table; COMEX copper futures HG=F on September 23, October 16, October 23, 2026 and October 23, 2025; ^GSPTSE on the same windows
• TradingView Canada scanner, pulled October 27, 2026, cross-checked against the published Royal Bank row from merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv
• TradingView earnings calendar, checked October 27, 2026, for FM, TECK.B, CS, ERO, IVN, LUN and HBM
• MarketBeat TSE forecast pages pulled October 27, 2026, for TECK-B, FM, LUN, HBM, IVN, CS and ERO
• StockSummarizer coverage log — no base-metals brief yet; Cameco brief dated 2026-09-26 is uranium and is not a row in this table
• Investing.com earnings-call summaries for Teck and Ivanhoe Mines (Q3 2026) and Energy Metal News, November 7, 2026 (copper miners, Kamoa-Kakula 2027 guidance)
• TD Securities, Weekly Bottom Line, November 6, 2026 (WTI, copper, gold, Canada 10-year yield); Baystreet.ca and Investcom TSX close reports, November 6, 2026 (S&P/TSX Composite 35,789.09, +0.48% on the week; October unemployment rate 6.7%)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons photographs, cropped to 16:9 and resized for this page. No AI-generated images were used. Company logos and video thumbnails on linked stock summaries keep the credits on those pages.

• Hero: “Highland Valley Copper Mine” by Alvestrand, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The open pit and tailings dam at Teck’s Highland Valley complex in British Columbia. Not a 2026 operating photograph.
• Overlook: “Highland Valley Copper Mine, Logan Lake, BC, Canada” by Jeffrey Wynne, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Haul trucks on the road above the pit.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com