Barrick Mining (ABX) — CIBC downgrade, ~10x earnings and a North American IPO ahead

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The short version: a downgrade for a stock that still looks cheap

Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX) was CA$55.84 in our October 8 table and closed Friday, October 16, at C$57.74 in Toronto. Over the twelve months to October 8 the shares were up about 18%, ahead of most of the big TSX gold names. That run is why CIBC downgraded the stock to Neutral on October 15: in its view Barrick has already outperformed its peers, and the cash from its planned IPO is still months away.

The numbers in our peer tables tell a slightly different story. At about 10x trailing earnings, Barrick is still one of the cheapest gold majors on the TSX, with the lowest price-to-sales and price-to-book in its group and a dividend yield more than twice the group average. The swing factor is the planned initial public offering of its North American gold business, targeted for year-end. Below we go through the downgrade, the second-quarter print behind the rally, the Newmont settlement, and how Barrick compares with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Franco-Nevada, Kinross and Alamos Gold on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: CIBC steps back after a year of outperformance

On October 15, 2026, CIBC analyst Anita Soni cut Barrick to Neutral from Outperformer and lowered her target on the New York listing to US$49 from US$57. Her argument was about price, not quality. After a year of beating its peers, she said, Barrick’s valuation looks less attractive. She also noted that the IPO will not put proceeds in shareholders’ hands for a few months, and that Barrick still has to show the listing lifts the value of the whole company.

CIBC trimmed its gold forecasts at the same time, to US$4,500 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026, US$5,200 for 2027 and US$5,500 for 2028. Spot gold was near US$4,190 on October 16, well below the levels earlier in the year (the first-quarter average was close to US$4,900). Other brokers have not followed CIBC yet. National Bank’s target is C$70 and Canaccord’s is C$73.

The Q2 print behind the rally

The last full report came on August 10, 2026, and it was a clean beat:

• Gold production rose 11% from the first quarter to 796,000 ounces, above the 730,000–770,000 ounce guidance range.
• Revenue jumped 44% from a year earlier to US$5.3 billion. Earnings per share were US$0.73 (+55%) and adjusted EPS was US$0.82, up 74%.
• Operating cash flow was US$1.70 billion, up 28%. Attributable free cash flow, though, was only US$141 million, held back by heavy spending.
• Barrick returned US$1.5 billion in the quarter, mostly through US$1.2 billion of buybacks, and still ended with net cash of about US$1.25 billion.
• Capital spending guidance was cut to US$3.8–4.2 billion.

The quarter also closed a long-running fight. Barrick settled its disputes with Newmont, its partner in Nevada Gold Mines. Newmont agreed to pay Barrick US$1.95 billion, folded its Fourmile project into Nevada Gold Mines (creating a Nevada complex of nearly 100 million ounces), and consented to the planned IPO. Barrick said Mark Hill would lead the new company. At an investor event in early October, management said the listing is still targeted for year-end but could slip into January.

Business overview: Barrick vs the TSX gold majors

Barrick is worth about C$92 billion, second in this group only to Agnico Eagle at about C$131 billion. The two large streaming and royalty companies, Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada, follow at about C$86 billion and C$65 billion, with Kinross and Alamos Gold near C$39 billion and C$19 billion.

On the income statement, though, Barrick is the biggest business here. Over the last twelve months it booked about C$28.6 billion of revenue and C$9.0 billion of net income, the most in the group on both lines. Agnico earns slightly less on about two-thirds of the revenue, which shows its higher margins. The streamers are much smaller businesses with very high margins, because they buy metal at fixed prices instead of running mines.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Barrick (ABX)	$55.84	$91.9B	$28.6B	$9.03B
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	$257.21	$131.0B	$20.1B	$8.12B
Wheaton (WPM)	$190.40	$86.5B	$4.38B	$2.83B
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	$339.13	$65.4B	$3.20B	$2.04B
Kinross (K)	$33.04	$39.2B	$11.7B	$4.39B
Alamos Gold (AGI)	$44.94	$18.8B	$3.08B	$1.62B
Average (incl. ABX)	—	$72.1B	$11.8B	$4.67B

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026, tsx-2026-10-08.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes ABX; blank cells skipped.

Interpretation: Barrick earns about 40% of the group’s revenue and close to a third of its profit, yet it is not the most valuable company in the table. That gap between size and market value is the core of the “cheap” argument, and it is also the gap the IPO is designed to close.

Performance: up about 18% in a year, behind only Wheaton

Over the twelve months to October 8, Barrick was up about 18%. That trails only Wheaton (about +24%) and beats Franco-Nevada (+9.5%) and Agnico Eagle (+7.9%), while Kinross and Alamos Gold are both down about 7%. That relative strength is exactly what CIBC flagged.

The month to October 8 was rough for the whole group as gold cooled from its highs. Barrick fell about 10%, close to the group average, while Kinross dropped about 22%. Over five and ten years Barrick is the laggard here, up about +142% and +163%, a reminder of how long it traded as the sector’s problem child before the recent turnaround.

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
Barrick (ABX)	−10.0%	+8.4%	−5.7%	+17.6%	+142%	+163%
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	−8.0%	+23.2%	−13.9%	+7.9%	+284%	+316%
Wheaton (WPM)	−10.5%	+23.0%	−3.2%	+24.0%	+305%	+515%
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	−7.6%	+16.1%	−6.3%	+9.5%	+106%	+297%
Kinross (K)	−22.4%	−0.9%	−28.1%	−7.1%	+371%	+587%
Alamos Gold (AGI)	−11.5%	+6.2%	−31.8%	−7.1%	+380%	+360%
Average (incl. ABX)	−11.7%	+12.7%	−14.8%	+7.5%	+265%	+373%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes ABX; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Interpretation: The one-year column is the only one where Barrick leads. On every longer window it trails the group, often by a wide margin. CIBC’s case is that the recent catch-up has already priced in the turnaround. The bull case is that a decade of underperformance leaves room for more.

Valuation: about 10x earnings in a sector that pays 18x

On trailing earnings Barrick trades at about 10.4x, against a group average near 18x. Only Kinross, at about 9x, is cheaper. Barrick also has the lowest price-to-sales (3.4x) and lowest price-to-book (2.4x) in the table, and it trades near 10x forward earnings. At the October 16 close of C$57.74 the trailing multiple is closer to 10.7x, so it still looks cheap.

The streamers sit at the other end of the table. Wheaton and Franco-Nevada trade above 30x trailing earnings, because investors pay up for a royalty model with no direct exposure to mining costs. Agnico Eagle, the premium operator, is near 16x.

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
Barrick (ABX)	10.38	9.95	0.08	3.38	2.37	11.92	11.06
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	15.91	15.40	0.17	6.63	3.21	20.59	26.21
Wheaton (WPM)	30.56	26.88	0.20	20.31	6.29	—	—
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	32.08	27.51	0.38	20.96	5.59	50.85	45.56
Kinross (K)	9.06	8.81	0.08	3.46	2.86	9.22	10.41
Alamos Gold (AGI)	11.68	12.81	0.05	6.38	2.76	43.16	19.73
Average (incl. ABX)	18.28	16.89	0.16	10.19	3.85	27.15	22.60

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes ABX; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

Interpretation: Barrick is not expensive by any measure in the table. The real question is why the market keeps the discount. Two reasons stand out: rising costs (all-in sustaining costs were up 11% from a year earlier in the second quarter) and a portfolio with large mines in riskier countries. Kinross is the closest like-for-like comparison and is slightly cheaper still.

Dividends: the highest yield in the group, and well covered

Barrick’s dividend policy aims to return half of its attributable free cash flow. It pays a base dividend of US$0.175 a quarter, plus a top-up at year-end. In our table that works out to about C$1.16 a share and an indicated yield of about 2.1%, the highest in this group, where the average is under 1%. The payout ratio is about 24% of trailing earnings, so the dividend is well covered.

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
Barrick (ABX)	$1.16	2.08%	24.2%
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	$2.24	0.87%	14.5%
Wheaton (WPM)	$0.93	0.57%	16.1%
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	$2.12	0.64%	21.5%
Kinross (K)	$0.19	0.49%	5.9%
Alamos Gold (AGI)	$0.14	0.30%	4.7%
Average (incl. ABX)	$1.13	0.82%	14.5%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes ABX; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

Interpretation: Gold stocks are rarely bought for income, and that is clear in this table: four of the six names yield under 1%. Barrick’s higher yield comes from the free-cash-flow formula, which means the year-end top-up will move with gold prices and spending. Buybacks are doing most of the heavy lifting on shareholder returns, at US$1.2 billion in the second quarter alone.

Analyst view: Buy-rated, with about 17% to the average target

Barrick carries a Buy rating in our table. The average one-year target on the Toronto shares is about C$67.67 from 14 analysts, with 10 Buy-rated and 4 Hold. That is about 21% above the October 8 price in the table and about 17% above Friday’s close near C$58. Individual targets range from C$41 to C$95. CIBC is now among the cautious calls, while National Bank sits at C$70 and Canaccord at C$73.

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Barrick (ABX)	Buy	$55.84	$67.67	+21.2%	14
Agnico Eagle (AEM)	Buy	$257.21	$295.33	+14.8%	9
Wheaton (WPM)	Strong buy	$190.40	$203.86	+7.1%	6
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	Strong buy	$339.13	$356.56	+5.1%	5
Kinross (K)	Strong buy	$33.04	$49.42	+49.6%	8
Alamos Gold (AGI)	Strong buy	$44.94	$76.67	+70.6%	3
Average (incl. ABX)	—	—	—	+28.1%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Target 1Y: MarketBeat consensus (TSE listings, CAD), forecast pages pulled 2026-10-19 (as of the October 16, 2026 close): ABX C$67.67 (14 analysts; 3 Strong Buy / 7 Buy / 4 Hold; range C$41-C$95), AEM C$295.33 (9), WPM C$203.86 (6), FNV C$356.56 (5), K C$49.42 (8), AGI C$76.67 (3 - thin coverage). Screener prices are October 8 closes; October 16 closes: ABX C$57.74, AEM C$267.66, WPM C$189.71, FNV C$344.54, K C$33.99, AGI C$45.49. Upside = target ÷ price − 1. Thin coverage (<5 analysts): AGI.

Interpretation: Among the larger peers, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton and Franco-Nevada show about 10% upside or less at October 16 closes, so Barrick screens better than the premium names. Kinross shows more upside than Barrick. Alamos shows the most of all, but that target rests on only three analysts, so treat it with care.

Why it matters: from messy miner to a cleaner story

The old story was Barrick as a messy global miner: disputes with partners and host governments, a mine shutdown in Mali, and patchy delivery on guidance. The new story is a cleaner company, with three straight strong quarters, net cash on the balance sheet, the Newmont fight settled, and a plan to list its North American gold business separately.

The open question is whether the IPO unlocks value for Barrick shareholders, or whether the market keeps valuing the parent, and its higher-risk assets, at a discount. CIBC’s downgrade does not argue the turnaround is fake. It argues that much of it is already in the price until the IPO proves otherwise.

Bull case

1. Cheap on almost every measure. About 10x trailing and forward earnings, the lowest price-to-sales and price-to-book in the group, and net cash on the balance sheet.
2. The IPO could put a market price on the best assets. A separate listing of the North American gold business, including a Nevada complex of nearly 100 million ounces, could show what the market will pay for low-risk ounces.
3. Returns and growth. Big buybacks, a covered dividend, and copper growth from the Lumwana expansion in Zambia, with first copper targeted for early 2028.

Bear case and risks

1. CIBC’s point. After a year of outperformance, the easy re-rating may be done, and IPO proceeds are months away.
2. Costs are climbing. All-in sustaining costs rose 11% from a year earlier to about US$1,866 an ounce, and guidance assumes oil at US$70 a barrel, far below where oil trades now. Barrick says every US$10 a barrel adds about US$12 an ounce to costs.
3. Thin free cash flow and political risk. Attributable free cash flow was just US$141 million in the second quarter, and the Mali dispute showed the political risk in its African mines.

What to watch

1. Third-quarter results on November 9, 2026, and whether Barrick meets guidance for a fourth straight quarter.
2. The North American IPO, targeted for year-end, though it could slip into January.
3. The gold price, after its pullback from the highs earlier this year, and whether CIBC’s lower forecasts prove right.
4. The C$68 average target. Whether the stock closes the gap, and whether more brokers follow CIBC.

Bottom line

Barrick has done much of what investors asked: steady production, net cash, big buybacks and a settled fight with Newmont. At about 10x earnings it is still one of the cheapest gold majors on the TSX, and it pays the highest yield in its peer group. CIBC’s downgrade is a call on timing more than quality. After an 18% year, the next leg probably depends on two things outside the current numbers: the gold price, and whether the North American IPO shows the market what Barrick’s best assets are worth. The November 9 third-quarter report is the next test.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — CIBC downgrade, ~10x earnings
• 0:25 What happened — the downgrade, gold forecasts, the Q2 beat and the Newmont deal
• 1:29 Overview — Barrick vs TSX gold peers
• 1:56 Performance heatmap
• 2:18 Valuation (~10x)
• 2:45 Dividends
• 3:07 Analyst ratings & targets
• 3:35 Why it matters
• 3:58 Bull case
• 4:22 Bear case
• 4:48 What to watch

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-10-08.csv, 3,581 rows; October 8 close; CAD). The October 16 closes quoted in the text (ABX C$57.74; AEM C$267.66; WPM C$189.71; FNV C$344.54; K C$33.99; AGI C$45.49) are from session data and are not used in the tables; the ~10.7x trailing P/E at C$57.74 is the table P/E scaled by the price change. Peers are gold-focused large caps from the same screener sector (Non-energy minerals): Agnico Eagle and Kinross (senior gold producers), Alamos Gold (a mid-tier producer), and Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada (the largest streaming and royalty names). Uranium, base-metal and copper names (Cameco, Teck, First Quantum, Lundin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines) were left out, and Lundin Gold was left out because it was covered on October 12. Wheaton’s price-to-free-cash-flow is not available in the export, and its price-to-cash value was distorted and is shown as not available. Average rows include ABX and skip blank cells. Target 1Y: MarketBeat consensus (TSE listings, CAD), pulled 2026-10-19 — ABX C$67.67 (14 analysts; 3 Strong Buy / 7 Buy / 4 Hold; range C$41–C$95), AEM (9), WPM (6), FNV (5), K (8), AGI (3, thin coverage). Barrick reports in U.S. dollars; second-quarter figures are from its August 10, 2026 release. AISC = all-in sustaining costs.

Sources

• Barrick Mining Corporation news release, August 10, 2026 — second-quarter 2026 results, Newmont settlement and IPO plan
• The Globe and Mail, October 16, 2026 — “Friday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades” (CIBC downgrade of Barrick)
• TheFly via TipRanks, October 16, 2026 — CIBC downgrades Barrick to Neutral
• MarketBeat, October 2026 — Barrick management remarks on IPO timing; ABX, AEM, WPM, FNV, K and AGI forecast pages (pulled October 19, 2026)
• Market data, October 16, 2026 — TSX closes and spot gold
• TSX screener merge October 8, 2026 (3,581 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: “Cortez Hills Pit, Nevada in 2013” by jhm_ (CC BY 2.0); “Twincreeksblast” by Geomartin (CC BY-SA 3.0); “Nevada Goldstrike Mine” by Lithium6ion (public domain); “Goldstrike Mine, Nevada (ASTER)” by NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Space Systems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (public domain); “Barrick Office Building Elko NV - panoramio” by Chanilim714 (CC BY-SA 3.0); “Toronto - ON - TD Canada Trust Tower2” by Taxiarchos228 (CC BY 3.0). Logo: File:Barrick Gold logo.svg (Wikimedia Commons; trademark of Barrick Mining Corporation). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com