Canadian bank stocks: Big Six Q3 earnings, valuation, dividends and analyst targets

The Big Six — Royal Bank, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank — plus challenger EQB make up about CA$1.24 trillion of liquid market value on the October 25, 2026 screener. Over the past year the peer median is up about 37%, roughly double the S&P/TSX Composite’s approximate +18% one-year price return. The last month cooled: the peer median slipped about 1.4% while the Composite was roughly flat to slightly up. Setup for this living note: strong trailing tape, a beat-heavy Q3, and a Street that no longer offers much “easy” upside to average targets.

Canadian bank snapshot: market cap, P/E, yield and returns vs the TSX

Metric	Peer set (7)	vs TSX (approx.)
Combined market cap	~CA$1.29T	—
Median trailing P/E	17.9x	—
Median forward P/E	15.0x	—
Median indicated yield	2.46%	—
Median 1M price return	+3.1%	TSX ~+1.4%
Median 1Y price return	+38.5%	TSX ~+18.2%

Screener as of November 9, 2026 (CAD; merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv, 2,564 rows). Peer set: RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA, EQB. Medians skip blank cells; P/E medians skip non-positive multiples. The TSX column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build and was not re-pulled for this refresh.

November 9, 2026 refresh. Between the November 3 and November 9 screener files the median peer price moved −0.6%. Best: EQB (+2.4%) and National Bank (+0.2%). Weakest: Scotiabank (−1.6%) and TD Bank (−1.2%). The snapshot and every peer table below are on the November 9 file. Commentary paragraphs between the tables were written on the October 25 file and quote those figures unless they give a later date.

Valuation looks mid-cycle, not panic-cheap: trailing P/E in the mid-to-high teens, forward P/E in the mid-teens, yields mid-2% to mid-3%. Scotiabank still screens as the income name; CIBC is the cheapest Big Six name on trailing earnings.

What is driving Canadian bank stocks: Q3 earnings, buybacks and the Bank of Canada

November 9, 2026 update. On October 28, 2026 the Bank of Canada raised the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its first hike since July 2023 and the end of seven straight holds at 2.25%. It said further increases may be needed but it would proceed carefully; the next decision is December 9. Banks can earn more on loans when rates rise, but Statistics Canada’s October labour survey showed unemployment up 0.2 points to 6.7%, which keeps credit costs in view. On the screener the peer median price moved −0.6% between the November 3 and November 9 files (EQB +2.4%, National Bank +0.2%; Scotiabank −1.6%, TD −1.2%). The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,789.09 on November 6, up 0.48% on the week. Calendar items below dated November 3–8 have since reported; this update summarizes only the results named here.

1. August 25–28, 2026 — Q3 earnings sweep. The big banks reported fiscal Q3 (quarter ended July 31). Headlines from the group roundup: RBC profit about CA$6.0B (EPS CA$4.23; adjusted EPS about CA$4.28, above Street); TD reported about CA$4.6B / adjusted CA$4.7B with adjusted EPS CA$2.77 (+26% YoY); Scotiabank called a record quarter with adjusted ROE about 14.2% and CET1 13.1%; CIBC earned about CA$2.41B (adjusted EPS about CA$2.73 vs ~CA$2.50 expected); BMO’s reported profit fell on sale-related items but adjusted EPS about CA$3.96 beat ~CA$3.75; National Bank earned about CA$1.31B with adjusted EPS about CA$3.39 vs ~CA$3.21. The common thread: beats, capital return, and credit that was manageable in the quarter.

2. August 27, 2026 — TD’s capital-return illustration. On the Q3 call TD sketched a path to return over CA$13B in fiscal 2027 (mostly buybacks, on top of the dividend) if organic capital and RWA growth stay on track — an illustration, not a hard commitment. That narrative, plus a plan for about 100 U.S. branches by 2028 (subject to approvals), is why TD still leads the one-year tape in this set even after a big run.

3. Late August 2026 — buybacks and dividends held or edged. BMO announced a plan to buy back 25 million common shares and held its quarterly dividend at CA$1.71. National Bank declared a CA$1.32 quarterly common dividend (payable November 1, 2026). Across the group, payout ratios on the screener still sit mostly in the 40–58% range — covered, not stretched like a pure income trust.

4. National Bank × Canadian Western Bank. NA’s Q3 commentary still carries acquisition and integration noise from the Canadian Western Bank deal (and Laurentian-related items). That is why CWB no longer sits as a separate liquid peer here — the western challenger story is folding into National Bank’s scale story.

5. October 28, 2026 — Bank of Canada hike. On October 28, 2026 the Bank of Canada raised the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its first hike since July 2023 and the end of seven straight holds at 2.25%. It said further increases may be needed but it would proceed carefully; the next decision is December 9. For banks, higher rates can support net interest margins but also test borrowers and loan growth; October unemployment rose to 6.7%.

6. U.S. regulatory and franchise risk (ongoing). TD’s AML remediation remains priority one for management; BMO and TD both carry meaningful U.S. footprints where returns still trail the Canadian books. That overhang is quieter than it was a year ago, but it has not disappeared from the risk list.

Which Canadian banks are leading and lagging

One month (screener): only TD (+1.3%) finished green. Softest: EQB (−6.2%), then National Bank (−4.0%) and BMO (−3.0%). The Big Six median was roughly flat-to-down — a cooldown after the summer rerating, not a sector break.

One year: TD (+54.2%) still leads by a wide margin, then Scotiabank (+44.9%) and CIBC (+40.5%). The pack from RBC through EQB sits in a tight +34% to +37% band. Relative to the TSX’s approximate +18% one-year move, every name in this peer set won — the question is how much of that win is already in the price.

Big Six and EQB peer comparison: size, performance, valuation, dividends and targets

Peer set for this living post: Royal Bank (RY), TD Bank (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Scotiabank (BNS), CIBC (CM), National Bank (NA), and EQB (EQB). Insurers, REITs, asset managers and Laurentian (too small / different story) stay out. Canadian Western Bank is omitted because it is inside the National Bank acquisition story rather than a standalone liquid peer.

Big Six and EQB overview: price, market cap, revenue and earnings

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Royal Bank (RY)	$284.16	$405.7B	$141.5B	$22.7B
TD Bank (TD)	$172.92	$302.3B	$113.0B	$16.2B
Bank of Montreal (BMO)	$241.42	$172.0B	$77.6B	$9.2B
Scotiabank (BNS)	$129.54	$165.6B	$70.5B	$10.0B
CIBC (CM)	$162.69	$151.8B	$62.4B	$10.1B
National Bank (NA)	$214.61	$84.8B	$32.2B	$4.9B
EQB (EQB)	$124.83	$5.4B	$3.0B	−$2.4M
Average	—	$184.0B	$71.5B	$10.4B

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes every row.

RBC and TD are the scale poles. BMO, Scotiabank and CIBC cluster around CA$145–165B. National Bank is the smaller Big Six name with a sharper Canadian (and now western) growth story. EQB is an order of magnitude smaller — a challenger reference, not a Big Six substitute.

Canadian bank performance: returns from one month to ten years

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	YTD	1Y	5Y	10Y
Royal Bank (RY)	+2.6%	−4.0%	+14.4%	+20.9%	+38.5%	+114%	+244%
TD Bank (TD)	+3.8%	+1.9%	+17.2%	+33.4%	+51.3%	+89%	+188%
Bank of Montreal (BMO)	+3.0%	−4.6%	+15.4%	+34.9%	+39.0%	+75%	+186%
Scotiabank (BNS)	+1.9%	+4.5%	+21.2%	+27.5%	+40.1%	+56%	+81%
CIBC (CM)	+3.6%	−2.0%	+7.3%	+30.2%	+38.0%	+116%	+232%
National Bank (NA)	+5.8%	−5.4%	+3.6%	+24.2%	+35.8%	+105%	+356%
EQB (EQB)	+3.1%	−9.1%	+2.8%	+20.1%	+38.4%	+54%	+390%
Average	+3.4%	−2.7%	+11.7%	+27.3%	+40.2%	+87%	+240%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD · price returns. Bold = leader on 1M and on 1Y. Average skips blanks.

One-year is the known story: a sector-wide re-rating with TD in front. One-month is the new information — leadership narrowed to TD while EQB and National Bank gave back more. Long windows still favour the compounders; near-term tape is digestion, not discovery.

Canadian bank valuation: P/E, forward P/E, price to book and price to sales

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF
Royal Bank (RY)	17.9	16.3	0.91	5.54	2.94	11.9
TD Bank (TD)	18.5	15.8	—	4.42	2.48	6.0
Bank of Montreal (BMO)	19.7	15.0	2.63	4.46	2.14	2.0
Scotiabank (BNS)	16.9	14.0	0.36	4.20	1.99	7.0
CIBC (CM)	15.6	14.8	0.61	4.73	2.50	5.1
National Bank (NA)	17.9	15.3	1.03	5.53	2.62	2.8
EQB (EQB)	—	11.3	—	3.48	1.44	7.8
Average	17.8	14.7	1.11	4.62	2.30	6.1

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. Average skips blanks; one large multiple can dominate a column average, so read the medians in the snapshot.

CIBC is the cheapest Big Six name on trailing P/E (15.3x). BMO is richest on trailing earnings (19.3x) but compresses toward the pack on forward P/E (14.8x). EQB screens cheapest on forward earnings (10.6x) and book (1.35x) — the discount that comes with a challenger balance sheet and a noisy trailing print. RBC still pays up for quality on P/B (2.91x). None of these multiples look like deep-value banking; they look like a sector that has already been rediscovered.

Canadian bank dividends: indicated yield and payout ratio

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield (ind.)	Payout ratio
Royal Bank (RY)	$6.04	2.41%	41.4%
TD Bank (TD)	$4.20	2.46%	46.3%
Bank of Montreal (BMO)	$6.44	2.76%	54.3%
Scotiabank (BNS)	$4.32	3.39%	57.5%
CIBC (CM)	$3.88	2.56%	39.8%
National Bank (NA)	$4.64	2.41%	41.1%
EQB (EQB)	$2.16	1.97%	—
Average	$4.53	2.57%	46.7%

Source: TSX screener merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows, November 9, 2026) · CAD. DPS is annual; yield is indicated. Payout is trailing; negative payouts show as — and are left out of the average.

This is still a total-return sector more than a pure income sleeve. Scotiabank’s ~3.5% indicated yield leads; CIBC and RBC sit nearer 2.5–2.7% with lower payouts. The bank case here is earnings power and buybacks as much as the coupon.

Canadian bank analyst targets: ratings, one-year targets and upside

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Royal Bank (RY)	Buy	$284.16	CA$292.86	+3.1%	12
TD Bank (TD)	Buy	$172.92	CA$171.08	−1.1%	11
Bank of Montreal (BMO)	Neutral	$241.42	CA$256.57	+6.3%	13
Scotiabank (BNS)	Buy	$129.54	CA$129.50	−0.0%	12
CIBC (CM)	Buy	$162.69	CA$167.79	+3.1%	12
National Bank (NA)	Neutral	$214.61	CA$218.50	+1.8%	11
EQB (EQB)	Buy	$124.83	CA$139.10	+11.4%	11
Average	—	—	CA$196.49	+3.5%	—

Rating = screener analyst rating on the November 9, 2026 file. Target 1Y and analyst counts are the MarketBeat TSE consensus figures (CAD) pulled October 27, 2026, not re-pulled in bulk for this refresh (Royal Bank spot-checked November 9, unchanged). Upside is the October 27 target versus the November 9 screener price. The dollar average mixes very different share prices; read the upside column.

The Street message is blunt: TD and Scotiabank already trade at or above the average target; RBC has only low-single-digit implied upside; BMO, CIBC and National Bank still show mid-single to high-single-digit room; EQB carries the largest implied gap (~18%) — and the widest disagreement (including a recent Strong Sell / low target from one shop). When average targets hug the tape on the Big Six, the next catalyst has to be earnings or rates, not “catch-up to the Street.”

How the Big Six differ from challenger bank EQB

The Big Six share OSFI capital rules, national deposit franchises, and wealth/capital-markets engines that smooth the cycle. Differences still matter: RBC is the quality/scale benchmark; TD is the U.S. + capital-return story; BMO is the other large U.S. book, still working on returns; Scotiabank is the international pivot with the highest yield in this set; CIBC is the Canada-centred operator that screens cheapest on trailing earnings; National Bank is the smaller compounder absorbing CWB.

EQB (Equitable Bank’s parent) is the liquid challenger in this note: smaller, more mortgage- and alternative-banking tilted, cheaper on forward earnings and book, and more volatile on the one- and three-month tape. It is here as a second lens on Canadian banking — not as a seventh Big Six name. Laurentian remains too small for this table; CWB is no longer a standalone peer.

Bull case for Canadian bank stocks

1. Earnings and capital return still compound. Q3 showed beats across the group, CET1 ratios that support buybacks, and payout ratios that leave room. If loan losses stay contained, buybacks (TD’s FY27 illustration, BMO’s 25M authorization, NA’s program) can keep EPS growing even if revenue growth cools.

2. Rate path may help NIMs again. After the October 28 hike to 2.50%, a firmer Bank of Canada path into late 2026 would not automatically hurt banks — higher policy rates can widen lending spreads, especially for deposit-rich franchises, as long as credit costs do not spike.

3. Discount names still exist inside the pack. CIBC on trailing P/E, Scotiabank on yield, EQB on forward P/E and P/B, and BMO/NA on upside-to-target are different ways the sector is not a single crowded trade. A DIY investor can still choose exposure rather than “own the index of banks blindly.”

Bear case and risks for Canadian bank stocks

1. The re-rating is largely done. Median +37% over one year vs ~+18% for the TSX, with several names at or above consensus targets, leaves less cushion if Q4 credit or capital-markets fees disappoint.

2. Credit and household leverage. Canadian mortgages, HELOCs and commercial books are still the swing factor. A harder landing, sticky unemployment, or a sharper rate shock would show up in provisions faster than in dividends.

3. U.S. and regulatory overhang. TD’s remediation and U.S. returns, BMO’s U.S. profitability rebuild, and ongoing OSFI/U.S. supervisory attention are slower-burn risks that can cap multiples even when Canadian quarters look fine.

What to watch next for Canadian banks: rates, Q4 earnings and Street targets

1. December 9, 2026 — next Bank of Canada decision. After the October 28 hike to 2.50%, whether a second hike follows is the near-term macro pivot for NIMs and the mortgage pipeline.

2. Fiscal Q4 / year-end prints (December 2026 window). Confirm whether Q3’s beat streak and PCL guidance still hold into year-end; watch CET1 and buyback pace.

3. TD U.S. remediation milestones and branch-plan approvals. Progress (or setbacks) will keep moving the leader of the one-year tape.

4. National Bank / CWB integration updates. Cost saves, credit migration and capital trajectory will decide whether NA’s discount to the larger banks narrows.

5. Street target refreshes after Q4. If average targets stop chasing the tape, relative value inside the sector gets clearer; if they keep lagging price, the “priced in” warning gets louder.

Related StockSummarizer video: TD Bank Q3 and capital return

• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — record Q3 and capital-return path · Watch on YouTube

No other Big Six tickers are in the coverage log yet. This sector page will link new bank briefs as they publish.

Data notes: screener date, peer set and where the targets come from

November 9, 2026 refresh. The snapshot strip and every peer table now come straight from merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv (2,564 rows): prices, market caps, LTM revenue and net income, returns, multiples, dividends and screener ratings. Average rows skip blanks. Analyst targets were not re-pulled in bulk: Target 1Y and analyst counts are still the MarketBeat TSE figures pulled October 27, 2026 (a November 9 spot-check of Royal Bank’s MarketBeat page showed the consensus unchanged at C$292.86 on 12 analysts, with the latest broker action dated September 3); upside compares those targets with the November 9 price. Rows for tickers missing from the November 9 export keep the previous build’s values and are named under the snapshot. The November 9 update paragraph uses the news and company releases listed under Sources, checked November 9, 2026; the TSX comparison column is the approximate index return carried from the October 26 build. The method notes below describe the October 27 build and still apply to the commentary written on it.

Table figures are TSX screener values from merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv (2,532 rows; October 25, 2026 close; CAD) unless labelled otherwise. Peer rule: liquid Canadian banks by ticker/name inside screener sector Finance — RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA, plus EQB as challenger. Excluded: insurers (MFC, SLF, GWO, IFC, …), REITs, asset managers, Laurentian (scale), and CWB (inside NA’s acquisition). Average rows include all seven names and skip blank cells. Target 1Y is MarketBeat TSE consensus in CAD, pulled October 27, 2026 (analyst counts 11–13; all ≥5). Screener ratings are shown in the Analyst table; MarketBeat’s own consensus labels (Moderate Buy / Hold) are noted in Sources. Q3 earnings figures are from company releases and the Globe and Mail sector roundup. TSX Composite 1M/1Y are approximate public index price returns near October 26, 2026. Snapshot medians use the seven-name set (trailing P/E median uses the six names with a trailing multiple).

Sources for earnings, the Bank of Canada, targets and the TSX screener

• TSX screener merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv (StockSummarizer data pipeline), October 25, 2026
• Globe and Mail, “A breakdown of the big banks’ third-quarter earnings,” Q3 2026 roundup (RBC, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA)
• TD Bank Group, Third Quarter 2026 Results, August 27, 2026
• Scotiabank, Q3 2026 Report to Shareholders, August 25, 2026
• National Bank of Canada, Q3-2026 dividend press release, August 26, 2026
• CIBC Q3 2026 supplementary financial information (period ended July 31, 2026)
• Bank of Canada policy interest rate schedule; October 28, 2026 hike to 2.50% (see the November 9 sources below)
• MarketBeat TSE price-target pages for RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA, EQB (consensus pulled October 27, 2026; pages note recent broker actions through about September 3, 2026)
• S&P/TSX Composite approximate 1M/1Y price returns (public index trackers near October 26, 2026)
• StockSummarizer coverage log — TD brief dated 2026-09-23
• Bank of Canada rate announcement, October 28, 2026 (overnight target raised to 2.50%; Bank Rate 2.75%), as reported by Reuters and CBC; next decision December 9, 2026
• TD Securities, Weekly Bottom Line, November 6, 2026 (WTI, copper, gold, Canada 10-year yield); Baystreet.ca and Investcom TSX close reports, November 6, 2026 (S&P/TSX Composite 35,789.09, +0.48% on the week; October unemployment rate 6.7%)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons photographs, cropped to 16:9 and resized for this page. No AI-generated images were used. Company logos and video thumbnails on linked stock summaries keep the credits on those pages.

• Hero: “Toronto Financial District August 2017” by Arild Vågen, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The photographer’s description names First Canadian Place, the Adelaide Hotel Toronto and Scotia Plaza. August 2017 streetscape, not a 2026 photograph.
• Bank of Canada: “Bank of Canada Building Ottawa” by Colin Rose, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The headquarters building, not a picture of the October 28 decision.
• Royal Bank Plaza: “Royal Bank Plaza Toronto” by Danielle Scott, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. The gold-clad complex in Toronto’s financial district.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com