FirstService (FSV) — Q3 beat and 9% of its shares bought back since April; ~37x trailing P/E

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The short version: a modest beat, and a big bet on its own shares

FirstService (TSX: FSV), the Toronto company behind North America’s leading condo and homeowner-association manager and brands like California Closets, Paul Davis, CertaPro Painters and Century Fire Protection, was CA$180.95 in our October 8 table, down about 31% over twelve months and almost 8% over the prior month. On Thursday, October 22, it reported third-quarter results slightly ahead of expectations, and the TSX shares jumped 7.4% to C$206.06 before giving back 2.5% on Friday to C$200.92. Even after the bounce, the stock sits about 25% below its 52-week high of C$266.83.

The quarter itself was solid rather than spectacular. The bigger story is capital allocation: since the start of April, FirstService has bought back 4.1 million shares, about 9% of the company, and its leverage has climbed to 2.4 times EBITDA as a result. On our table it trades at about 37x trailing earnings, the lowest P/E in its peer group, but with growth that leans on organic gains in 2027. Below we go through the print, the buyback math, and how FirstService compares with Colliers, Boyd Group and Altus Group on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: a third-quarter beat with roofing still dragging

On October 22, 2026, before the open, FirstService reported results for the quarter ended September 30. All company figures are in US dollars:

• Revenue of US$1.53B, up 6% from US$1.45B a year earlier, with 4% organic growth, ahead of the roughly US$1.50B analysts expected.
• Adjusted EPS of US$1.89, up 7% from US$1.76, just ahead of the US$1.87 consensus.
• Adjusted EBITDA of US$169.7M, up 3%, for a consolidated margin of 11.1% versus 11.4% a year earlier.
• GAAP diluted EPS of US$0.99, down from US$1.24, as operating earnings fell to US$107.4M from US$115.6M.

Management reaffirmed its full-year targets: mid-single-digit growth in both revenue and EBITDA for 2026, with revenue growth at the upper end of the range it expected at mid-year, and fourth-quarter margins slightly higher than last year. The 2027 outlook comes with year-end results in February.

The segments and the buyback behind the quarter

The two divisions told different stories:

• FirstService Residential revenue rose 5% to US$633.3M, all organic, driven by new contract wins. Its EBITDA margin widened 30 basis points to 11.3%, the eighth straight quarter with some margin improvement, and management expects at least double that gain in the fourth quarter after exiting a money-losing seasonal pool business.
• FirstService Brands revenue rose 7% to US$898.4M (3% organic). Restoration (Paul Davis and First Onsite) grew 10% on strong activity in Canada and Hawaii, and Century Fire grew more than 10%. Roofing revenue fell 4%, and high single digits organically, on weak demand and tough pricing in Florida and Las Vegas, so the division’s EBITDA margin slipped 80 basis points to 11.3%.

The biggest move was on the balance sheet. In the quarter, FirstService repurchased 2.2 million shares for a little more than US$300M under its normal course issuer bid, bringing the total since the start of the second quarter to 4.1 million shares, or about 9% of the shares outstanding. It has room for another 2.6 million shares under the current bid, which runs to late August 2027. The cost shows up in the debt: net debt rose to US$1.4B, or 2.4 times trailing EBITDA, up from 1.8 times at the end of June. Management called mid-2s its comfort zone and said buybacks will now be “more judicious”, in step with free cash flow. Operating cash flow after working capital was US$84.2M in the quarter, held back by restoration work in progress.

Business overview: FirstService vs property-services peers

FirstService earns money in two ways. FirstService Residential manages condo towers, master-planned communities and homeowner associations across North America — a recurring, contract-based business with steady but thin margins. FirstService Brands is a group of essential property services: restoration after fires, floods and storms; Century Fire’s sprinkler and fire-protection work; Roofing Corp. of America; and franchised home-services brands such as California Closets and CertaPro Painters. Residential is the steady half; restoration, roofing and home improvement are more cyclical and weather-driven.

On the screener, FirstService sits in the Finance sector, which is dominated by banks, insurers and REITs that are not business-comparable. We kept the two same-sector property-services names — Colliers (CIGI), the commercial real-estate services firm that was spun out of the old FirstService in 2015, and Altus Group (AIF), a real-estate advisory and analytics company — and added Boyd Group (BYD) as a documented closest-sector exception. Boyd sits in Consumer services, but its collision-repair roll-up is the closest TSX match for the multi-location, acquire-and-integrate model of FirstService Brands. Banks, insurers, REITs and sub-C$1B names were left out.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
FirstService (FSV)	$180.95	$8.27B	$7.74B	$223M
Colliers (CIGI)	$122.44	$6.26B	$8.23B	$150M
Boyd Group (BYD)	$109.70	$3.05B	$4.97B	$13M
Altus Group (AIF)	$44.90	$1.54B	$486M	−$26M
Average (incl. FSV)	—	$4.78B	$5.36B	$90M

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026, tsx-2026-10-08.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes FSV; blank cells skipped.

FirstService is the largest company in the group by market value, just ahead of Colliers, although Colliers books slightly more revenue. FirstService also earns by far the most profit: about C$223M over twelve months, while Boyd barely broke even and Altus lost money.

Performance: a rough year for the whole group

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
FirstService (FSV)	−7.7%	−9.5%	−10.3%	−30.5%	−21.6%	+198%
Colliers (CIGI)	−10.9%	−11.4%	−20.5%	−42.5%	−25.3%	+120%
Boyd Group (BYD)	−10.5%	−19.2%	−33.9%	−50.8%	−54.7%	+30.3%
Altus Group (AIF)	−5.7%	−2.7%	−7.8%	−27.2%	−29.0%	+60.4%
Average (incl. FSV)	−8.7%	−10.7%	−18.2%	−37.8%	−32.7%	+102%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes FSV; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

All four names were down over both the last month and the last year to October 8, so this was a sector-wide sell-off, not a FirstService-specific one. FirstService fell about 31% over the year, better than Colliers (−43%) and Boyd (−51%), with only Altus (−27%) holding up better. Over the month it was off almost 8%, in line with the group, and that was before this week’s results-day bounce.

The long windows show what investors used to pay for: FirstService is still up about 198% over ten years, the best in the table, even after a negative five years.

Valuation: lowest P/E in the group, average on cash flow

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
FirstService (FSV)	37.08	20.42	2.80	1.07	4.62	17.55	28.75
Colliers (CIGI)	41.93	10.89	—	0.77	2.86	26.63	11.56
Boyd Group (BYD)	174	18.90	7.78	0.62	1.24	7.11	93.92
Altus Group (AIF)	—	16.15	—	3.35	4.76	22.00	26.41
Average (incl. FSV)	84.31	16.59	5.29	1.45	3.37	18.32	40.16

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes FSV; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

FirstService trades at about 37x trailing earnings, the lowest P/E in the table; Boyd’s depressed profits push its P/E to about 174 and drag the group average up to 84, so the average isn’t a useful yardstick here. On sales, FirstService is about 1.1x, and on free cash flow about 17.6x, right at the group average of 18.3x. Boyd is the cheapest on most other measures (sales, book value and free cash flow), and Colliers has the lowest forward P/E at about 11x.

The forward view matters more than the trailing one. On the October 8 price, FirstService traded at about 20x this year’s expected earnings; at Friday’s C$200.92 close, that rises to roughly 22x. That is far below what investors paid for this compounder in recent years, which is why management chose to buy back stock. The catch is that the cheaper multiple reflects slower growth and a roofing business with limited visibility, not just a sell-off.

Dividend: small, well covered, and secondary to buybacks

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
FirstService (FSV)	$1.53	0.79%	33.2%
Colliers (CIGI)	$0.41	0.35%	14.3%
Boyd Group (BYD)	$0.61	0.57%	98.2%
Altus Group (AIF)	$0.60	1.34%	—
Average (incl. FSV)	$0.79	0.76%	48.6%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes FSV; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

FirstService pays a small dividend: about C$1.53 a share a year in our table, for an indicated yield of about 0.8%, close to the group average. The payout ratio is only about 33% of earnings, so the dividend is well covered, and it has been raised for 11 straight years. Altus yields the most in the group at 1.3%, while Boyd pays out almost all of its earnings. FirstService is not an income stock: buybacks, not dividends, are now the main way it returns cash to shareholders.

Analyst view: targets rising after the print

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
FirstService (FSV)	Strong buy	$180.95	US$173.25	+20.6%	10
Colliers (CIGI)	Buy	$122.44	$195.63	+59.8%	13
Boyd Group (BYD)	Strong buy	$109.70	$222.30	+103%	15
Altus Group (AIF)	Buy	$44.90	$53.02	+18.1%	6
Average (incl. FSV)	—	—	—	+50.4%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Target 1Y: S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com — FSV is the NASDAQ-listing average in US dollars, US$173.25 from 10 analysts (pulled 2026-10-23), so its upside is measured against the October 23 NASDAQ close of US$143.67; peers are TSX averages in CAD, pulled 2026-10-24: CIGI C$195.63 (13), BYD C$222.30 (15), AIF C$53.02 (6). None under 5 analysts. Peer upside = target ÷ table price − 1.

FirstService carries a Strong Buy rating on the screener. On the US listing, 10 analysts have an average one-year target of about US$173, roughly 21% above Friday’s NASDAQ close of US$143.67. Brokers moved higher after the quarter: on October 23, TD raised its target to US$203 from US$195, Stifel to US$195 from US$185, CIBC to US$178 from US$170 (Outperformer), and Scotiabank to US$175 from US$170, while Raymond James kept US$190 (Outperform) and BMO US$179. Scotiabank noted the stock trades near 13x its 2027 EBITDA estimate versus a historical average around 18x. Colliers and Boyd show even bigger gaps to their targets, which says more about how far the whole group has fallen than about any one name.

Why it matters: from acquisition compounder to buyback story

For years, FirstService was priced as a steady compounder that grew through small acquisitions: buy a regional restoration, fire or roofing business, plug it into a national brand, repeat. That model earned premium multiples.

The new narrative is different. With good deals scarce, private-equity competition still high and the stock down sharply, management is betting on itself instead, buying back almost a tenth of the company in two quarters. That boosts earnings per share, but it also lifts leverage and makes 2027 growth depend more on organic gains in roofing, restoration and Residential. The open question is whether the roofing slump and the weak housing market fade before the buyback has to slow.

Bull case

1. Recurring core. Residential is contract-based and growing 5% organically, with eight straight quarters of margin gains and a bigger lift guided for the fourth quarter.
2. Fewer shares. About 9% fewer shares since April means each dollar of profit goes further, helping adjusted EPS grow faster than EBITDA.
3. Growing pieces. Restoration grew 10% and Century Fire more than 10%, and the roofing backlog ended the quarter at its highest level in a year.

Bear case and risks

1. Roofing is still shrinking. Revenue fell again, and management expects tough pricing in Florida to last, with limited visibility until a new ERP system is in place in 2027.
2. Weak housing and consumer. Housing activity and consumer sentiment are near historic lows, which weighs on home-services brands like California Closets and CertaPro.
3. More debt, slower buybacks. Leverage is up to 2.4x, so the buyback has to slow, and GAAP EPS fell in the quarter even as adjusted EPS rose.

What to watch

1. Fourth-quarter results (early 2027), and whether Residential margins expand by the promised 60-plus basis points.
2. The 2027 outlook at year-end results in February.
3. Roofing backlog turning into revenue, especially outside Florida.
4. The buyback: how much of the remaining 2.6 million shares gets used, and where leverage settles.

Bottom line

FirstService delivered a clean quarter in a tough market: organic growth ahead of plan, steady Residential margins, and strength in restoration and fire protection that offset a weak roofing business. Its most important decision, though, was buying back about 9% of its shares since April, which shows management thinks the stock is cheap after a 31% slide. At about 37x trailing and roughly 22x expected earnings at Friday’s price, it is the lowest P/E in its peer group, but no longer a growth-premium story. The next test is whether 2027 brings organic growth strong enough to justify that bet now that debt is higher and buybacks have to slow.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — Q3 beat, stock +7%, 9% of shares bought back
• 0:26 What happened — Q3 print, segments, buyback and leverage
• 1:38 Overview — FirstService vs property-services peers
• 2:00 Performance heatmap
• 2:21 Valuation (~37x trailing P/E)
• 2:47 Dividends
• 3:10 Analyst ratings & targets
• 3:38 Why it matters
• 3:57 Bull case
• 4:16 Bear case
• 4:36 What to watch

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-10-08.csv, 3,581 rows; October 8 close; CAD). The October 22 and 23 TSX closes quoted in the text (FSV C$206.06 and C$200.92; CIGI C$130.12, BYD C$114.39 and AIF C$50.35 on October 23) and the 52-week high of C$266.83 are from session data and are not used in the tables. FirstService reports in US dollars, so the company figures in What happened are US$. Peers: Colliers and Altus Group are same-sector (Finance) property-services names; Boyd Group (Consumer services) is a documented closest-sector exception; banks, insurers, REITs and sub-C$1B names were left out. PEG and P/E are blank where the screener has no meaningful value, and Altus’s negative payout ratio is blank. Average rows include FSV and skip blank cells. Target 1Y is the S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com: FSV US$173.25 from 10 analysts on the NASDAQ listing (range US$140–195, pulled 2026-10-23); CIGI C$195.63 (13), BYD C$222.30 (15) and AIF C$53.02 (6) on the TSX, pulled 2026-10-24. MarketBeat’s FSV consensus was US$179.82 from 12 ratings. The ~22x forward multiple scales the screener’s forward P/E (20.4x at C$180.95) to the C$200.92 close. Third-quarter figures and the buyback and leverage details are from FirstService’s October 22, 2026 release and conference call; consensus estimates (revenue about US$1.50B, adjusted EPS US$1.87) are as reported by Investing.com.

Sources

• FirstService news release, October 22, 2026 — “FirstService Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results”
• FirstService Q3 2026 earnings call, October 22, 2026 (transcript via The Motley Fool)
• Investing.com, October 22–23, 2026 — Q3 earnings beat; Scotiabank target raise
• TheFly / TipRanks and MarketBeat, October 23, 2026 — CIBC, Scotiabank, TD, Stifel, Raymond James and BMO target moves
• Kalkine, October 22, 2026 — FSV TSX move after Q3 results
• stockanalysis.com — FSV and peer consensus targets and October 23 closes (October 23–24, 2026)
• TSX screener merge October 8, 2026 (3,581 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: FirstService logo (File:FirstService Logo.svg, public domain; light grey recoloured darker for contrast); “Skyline of The Queensway Humber Bay, Toronto 2026” by Chicken4War (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Toronto skyline, 2017 04 12 -bc” by booledozer (CC BY-SA 2.0); “California Closets Store - Washington DC” by Tony Webster (CC BY 2.0; California Closets is a FirstService brand); “FEMA - 2440 - Photograph by Bob Epstein taken on 08-24-1992 in Florida” by Bob Epstein (public domain); “Roof repair on refuge residence” by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Southeast Region (public domain); “Fire sprinkler roof mount side view” by Brandon Leon (CC BY-SA 2.0). The condo, construction, storm-damage, roofing and sprinkler photos are illustrative and do not show FirstService properties or crews. No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com