TMX Group (X) — TM2X path to C$2B revenue vs a 25x trailing P/E

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The short version: a growth plan priced at a premium

TMX Group (TSX: X), the operator of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture, the Montréal Exchange and a growing data business, closed at CA$54.49 on September 24, 2026. The stock is up about 20% over three months but only about 1.5% over twelve months. Management’s message is that TMX is “well on track” toward its TM2X goal: doubling revenue from C$1B to C$2B, faster than it took to get from C$500M to C$1B.

At about 25x trailing earnings and 21x forward, TMX trades at a premium to its financial peers, so the question for a new buyer is how much of the C$2B plan is already in the price. Below we go through the CIBC presentation, the deal slate, and how TMX compares with IGM Financial, Onex, Intact, Sun Life and Great-West on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: the CIBC update on TM2X

On September 24, 2026, CFO David Arnold spoke at CIBC’s Eastern Institutional Investor Conference, and coverage of his remarks circulated on September 26–27. The main points:

• TMX is “well on track” to grow revenue from C$1B to C$2B in half the time it took to grow from C$500M to C$1B.
• Aspirational mix targets: recurring revenue about two-thirds of the total, roughly half of revenue from outside Canada, and Global Solutions, Insights and Analytics (GSIA) near 50%.
• Recurring revenue is about 53% today, and management said it will not grow that mix by starving the transactional businesses (the TSX, TSX Venture and Montréal Exchange).

None of this was new guidance in the form of a number for next quarter. It was a progress report on a long-term plan, and its value is in the mix targets: a business that is two-thirds recurring and half international would deserve a different multiple from a domestic exchange that depends on trading volumes and listings.

Hot capital markets and a busy deal slate

The backdrop is strong. Arnold pointed to more IPOs in the first half of 2026 than in all of 2025, Canadian capital raising up about 15% year over year through August, and financings up nearly 90%. Those transactional revenues are exactly the part of TMX that swings with markets.

The 2026 deal slate is also in motion:

• Cboe Australia closed and has been rebranded as TMX Australia Exchange.
• Refi closed and was folded into VettaFi, TMX’s index and data business.
• Cboe Canada is still pending Competition Bureau and OSC review.
• The BOX + MEMX combination still needs SEC approval.

Two closings push TMX further outside Canada and deeper into data; two pending deals carry regulatory and timing risk. That split matters for the valuation: investors are paying today for deals that are not all done.

Business overview: TMX vs financial peers

TMX runs Canada’s main equity exchanges (TSX and TSX Venture), the Montréal Exchange for derivatives, clearing and depository services, and a data and analytics arm that includes Trayport (energy trading software), Datalinx and VettaFi. The steadier part is recurring revenue from data, index licensing, listings fees and technology; the cyclical part is trading, clearing and new-issue activity.

On the TSX screener, TMX sits in the Finance sector, which is dominated by the Big Six banks. The banks were deliberately excluded, since a bank’s balance sheet is a poor comparison for an exchange-and-data operator. The peer set uses liquid capital-markets and diversified financial names: IGM Financial (IGM), a wealth and asset manager; Onex (ONEX), an alternative-asset manager and investor; and three large diversified financials, Intact (IFC), Sun Life (SLF) and Great-West (GWO). CI Financial was missing from the screener merge.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
TMX (X)	$54.49	$15.0B	$2.93B	$603M
IGM Financial (IGM)	$84.76	$19.5B	$3.78B	$1.17B
Onex (ONEX)	$108.38	$8.27B	$387M	$664M
Intact (IFC)	$250.86	$44.2B	$30.5B	$3.29B
Sun Life (SLF)	$112.33	$62.5B	$44.2B	$3.38B
Great-West (GWO)	$92.26	$82.5B	$48.6B	$4.63B
Average (incl. X)	—	$38.7B	$21.7B	$2.29B

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026, tsx-2026-09-25.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes X; blank cells skipped.

TMX is about a C$15B company, smaller than the insurers and IGM; only Onex is smaller, at about C$8.3B. Its revenue of about C$2.93B and net income of C$603M imply a net margin near 21%, roughly double the 8–11% that Intact, Sun Life and Great-West earn on their much larger revenue, which is part of why the market pays more per dollar of sales.

Performance: a strong quarter, a flat year

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
TMX (X)	+1.9%	+19.8%	+13.0%	+1.5%	+97.7%	+370%
IGM Financial (IGM)	−3.3%	+9.6%	+31.0%	+64.9%	+83.3%	+132%
Onex (ONEX)	−6.4%	+4.0%	+8.3%	−11.7%	+18.7%	+33.7%
Intact (IFC)	−5.9%	−13.7%	+0.6%	−5.2%	+46.0%	+165%
Sun Life (SLF)	+2.3%	+2.0%	+30.2%	+35.8%	+75.9%	+163%
Great-West (GWO)	+3.4%	+3.6%	+43.8%	+68.8%	+140%	+179%
Average (incl. X)	−1.3%	+4.2%	+21.1%	+25.7%	+76.9%	+174%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes X; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over three months TMX is up about 20%, the strongest short-term tape in the group. Over one year it is roughly flat, up about 1.5%, while Great-West gained about 69%, IGM about 65% and Sun Life about 36%. Onex is down about 12% and Intact about 5% over the year. So TMX’s recent run is stock-specific, a recovery after a weak stretch rather than part of a sector-wide rally.

Over longer windows TMX has been the compounder: up about 98% over five years and 370% over ten, the best ten-year record in the table by a wide margin.

Valuation: paying up for the franchise

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
TMX (X)	25.18	21.40	0.59	5.15	3.05	25.94	19.32
IGM Financial (IGM)	17.17	14.33	0.85	5.30	2.11	16.78	13.08
Onex (ONEX)	11.69	—	—	21.38	0.60	—	45.01
Intact (IFC)	13.95	13.91	0.37	1.46	2.25	12.32	—
Sun Life (SLF)	19.06	13.54	3.87	1.43	2.64	3.63	—
Great-West (GWO)	19.02	15.35	0.89	1.72	3.09	19.76	—
Average (incl. X)	17.68	15.71	1.31	6.07	2.29	15.69	25.80

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes X; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

TMX trades at about 25x trailing earnings and 21x forward, a clear premium to the peer average near 18x trailing and 16x forward. Onex looks cheapest on earnings and book value (about 12x and 0.6x), reflecting its holding-company structure, and Sun Life is cheapest on sales and free cash flow. On price to sales, TMX (about 5.2x) is close to IGM; the insurers sit below 2x because their revenue includes premiums that carry thin margins.

TMX is not cheap on free cash flow either, at about 26x against a group average near 16x. Investors are paying for the exchange franchise, data growth and the path to C$2B. If the recurring mix and international share climb toward the targets, a premium multiple is easier to defend; if trading volumes cool, the earnings base behind that 25x shrinks.

Dividend: a modest, well-covered yield

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
TMX (X)	$0.84	1.91%	42.3%
IGM Financial (IGM)	$2.25	2.93%	47.6%
Onex (ONEX)	$0.40	0.37%	4.3%
Intact (IFC)	$5.32	2.34%	31.1%
Sun Life (SLF)	$3.52	3.42%	62.1%
Great-West (GWO)	$2.44	2.90%	52.4%
Average (incl. X)	$2.46	2.31%	40.0%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes X; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

TMX pays C$0.84 a share a year, an indicated yield of about 1.9%, on a payout near 42% of earnings. That is the second-lowest yield in the group, ahead of only Onex (about 0.4%). Sun Life leads at about 3.4%, with IGM and Great-West near 2.9%. The payout leaves room for growth while TMX funds technology and acquisitions, but at this price the story is growth and mix shift, not income.

Analyst view: about 20% upside to consensus

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
TMX (X)	Strong buy	$54.49	$65.43	+20.1%	7
IGM Financial (IGM)	Neutral	$84.76	$87.25	+2.9%	8
Onex (ONEX)	Buy	$108.38	$152.50	+40.7%	4
Intact (IFC)	Buy	$250.86	$326.23	+30.0%	13
Sun Life (SLF)	Neutral	$112.33	$114.15	+1.6%	14
Great-West (GWO)	Buy	$92.26	$94.00	+1.9%	12
Average (incl. X)	—	—	—	+16.2%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Target 1Y: S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com TSX forecast pages, pulled 2026-09-27 (X 7, IGM 8, ONEX 4, IFC 13, SLF 14, GWO 12 analysts). Thin coverage (<5 analysts): ONEX. Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

The TSX screener rates TMX a Strong buy, and the S&P Global consensus target is C$65.43 from seven analysts, about 20% above the screener price. Recent notes: Scotiabank moved to a C$71 target with a Buy on August 3, CIBC initiated at Buy with C$64.50 on August 17, and RBC maintained a Buy at C$69 on August 25. Among peers, Onex shows about 41% upside on thin coverage of only four analysts, and Intact about 30%, while IGM, Sun Life and Great-West trade within about 3% of their targets. The Street sees more room for TMX than for most of the group.

Why it matters: from exchange utility to global data platform

The old narrative was TMX as Canada’s exchange utility: listings, trading and clearing, tied to the domestic market cycle. The new narrative is a global market-infrastructure and data platform, with Trayport, Datalinx and VettaFi alongside the exchanges and a stated path from C$1B to C$2B in revenue.

The CIBC update and the Australian and Refi closings fit that new narrative. Growth investors care whether the deal slate and recurring-mix targets stick. Income investors care whether the dividend keeps growing while management funds technology and M&A. The open question is how long the market will pay a premium before the pending deals close.

Bull case

1. TM2X on track. Management says the C$1B to C$2B plan is on schedule, with 2026 capital-markets activity already strong.
2. Closed deals widen the moat. TMX Australia Exchange and Refi inside VettaFi expand data and international reach.
3. Street upside. Targets of about C$65 to C$71 imply meaningful upside from C$54.49 if the mix shift lands.

Bear case and risks

1. Premium already paid. About 25x trailing earnings against an 18x peer average means a lot of progress is priced in.
2. Regulatory risk. Cboe Canada and BOX + MEMX still need the Competition Bureau, the OSC and the SEC; timing and dis-synergies are real risks.
3. Cyclical revenue. Recurring revenue is still only about 53%, and transactional volumes can swing with markets.

What to watch

1. Competition Bureau and OSC decisions on Cboe Canada. Approval would add a second Canadian equity venue to TMX.
2. SEC approval on BOX + MEMX. The biggest test of the U.S. strategy.
3. Q3 2026 results, expected around October 26. Recurring revenue share and the strength of listings and trading.
4. Mix progress. Whether recurring and international revenue keep climbing toward the two-thirds and one-half targets.

Bottom line

TMX has earned a premium: the dominant position in Canadian listings, a growing data business, two closed deals in 2026 and a decade of compounding that tops this peer table. Management’s TM2X update says the C$2B revenue plan is on track. The issue is price: at about 25x trailing earnings and 26x free cash flow, TMX already costs more than its financial peers, and two important deals still sit with regulators. The next test is whether the Q3 results show the recurring mix moving toward two-thirds while markets stay busy.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — TM2X path to C$2B
• 0:22 What happened — CIBC presentation & deals
• 1:29 Overview — TMX vs financial peers
• 1:53 Performance heatmap
• 2:15 Valuation — 25x earnings
• 2:40 Dividends
• 3:01 Analyst ratings & price targets
• 3:28 Why it matters
• 3:53 Bull case
• 4:13 Bear case
• 4:34 What to watch + close

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-09-25.csv, 929 rows; September 24 close; CAD). Peers follow a documented closest-business exception: the Finance sector is dominated by the Big Six banks, which were excluded as poor comparables for an exchange-and-data operator; the set uses IGM and Onex (asset management and alternatives) and Intact, Sun Life and Great-West (large diversified financials). CI Financial was missing from the merge. Average rows include X and skip blank cells. Target 1Y is S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com, pulled 2026-09-27 (X 7, IGM 8, ONEX 4, IFC 13, SLF 14, GWO 12 analysts); Onex has fewer than 5 analysts. Yahoo Finance showed a September 25 close of CA$54.03, about 0.8% below the screener print, which does not change the headline numbers. Presentation figures are from coverage of the September 24, 2026 CIBC conference.

Sources

• CIBC Eastern Institutional Investor Conference, September 24, 2026 — TMX Group presentation (transcript via Seeking Alpha / stockanalysis.com)
• Transcript Daily / MarketBeat summary of the CIBC presentation, September 26–27, 2026
• Broker notes: Scotiabank (August 3, 2026), CIBC (August 17, 2026), RBC (August 25, 2026)
• stockanalysis.com — S&P Global consensus for X, IGM, ONEX, IFC, SLF and GWO (pulled 2026-09-27); Yahoo Finance X.TO price and target re-check (September 25–27, 2026)
• TSX screener merge September 25, 2026 (929 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: TMX Group logo (File:TMX Group logo.svg, public domain); Toronto Stock Exchange trading floor photo (public domain); Toronto Financial District photo by Gabriel Fernandes (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Tickers” photo (CC BY 2.0). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com