TC Energy (TRP) — C$560M Guadalajara–Manzanillo pipeline sale to ESENTIA

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Quick version: 60-second Short

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The short version: recycling a mature Mexico asset

TC Energy (TSX: TRP), one of North America’s largest natural gas pipeline operators, closed at CA$84.26 on the September 24, 2026 screener print, up about 14.5% over twelve months but down about 15% over three months. On September 21, it agreed to sell its Guadalajara–Manzanillo gas pipeline in Mexico to ESENTIA affiliates for about C$560M (US$400M). The new story is capital recycling: selling a mature asset to fund higher-return growth across North America.

At about 25x trailing earnings and 22x forward, TC Energy trades near its peer average, with a 4.2% indicated yield, the lowest in its group. The question for a new buyer is whether a deal this small changes anything, and whether Street targets near C$100 still have room. Below we go through the sale, what TC Energy keeps in Mexico, and how it compares with Enbridge, Pembina, Keyera and South Bow on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: the Guadalajara–Manzanillo sale

On September 21, 2026, TC Energy announced an agreement to sell Energía Occidente de México (EOM), the entity that owns the Guadalajara–Manzanillo natural gas pipeline, to affiliates of ESENTIA Energy Development. The terms:

• Gross purchase price of about C$560M (US$400M).
• The pipeline runs 313 km and moves up to 500 MMcf/d of gas.
• Closing is anticipated in the first half of 2027, subject to customary conditions, regulatory approvals and consents.
• CEO François Poirier framed it as portfolio optimization: cash from a mature asset to fund high-value growth across North America.

The sale is small relative to the company. At about C$560M, it is roughly 0.7% of TC Energy’s market value. It doesn’t change the earnings picture or the dividend in any meaningful way; its value is in what the cash is redeployed into and in the signal that management is willing to sell mature assets rather than issue shares to fund growth.

The asset, and what TC Energy keeps in Mexico

The Guadalajara–Manzanillo line connects imported LNG near the port of Manzanillo and continental gas near Guadalajara to power and industrial customers in Colima and Jalisco. It is a mature, contracted lateral: steady, but not a growth asset.

After closing, TC Energy still owns and operates about 3,300 km of pipelines in Mexico and about 8.7 Bcf/d of installed natural gas transportation capacity. So Mexico remains a core part of the portfolio. The timing risk is regulatory: the close is not expected until the first half of 2027, and Mexican approvals and consents can slip, which would delay the cash.

Business overview: TC Energy vs midstream peers

TC Energy runs natural gas transmission pipelines across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, owns gas storage, and has a power business that includes a stake in Ontario’s Bruce Power nuclear plant. Most of its cash flow comes from regulated and long-term contracted pipelines, which makes it more utility-like than commodity-driven. Since spinning off its liquids pipelines as South Bow, it has been a pure natural gas and power company.

On the TSX screener, TC Energy sits in the Industrial services sector. The peers are the liquid midstream names in the same sector: Enbridge (ENB), the largest pipeline company, with crude, gas and utilities; Pembina (PPL), a Western Canadian pipeline and processing operator; Keyera (KEY), a gas processing and liquids business; and South Bow (SOBO), the liquids pipeline company spun out of TC Energy. Waste Connections was left out as not a midstream business.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
TC Energy (TRP)	$84.26	$84.3B	$16.0B	$3.60B
Enbridge (ENB)	$66.99	$151.9B	$83.3B	$6.13B
Pembina (PPL)	$64.24	$37.4B	$7.84B	$1.78B
Keyera (KEY)	$53.11	$15.6B	$7.21B	$361M
South Bow (SOBO)	$48.51	$10.1B	$2.11B	$602M
Average (incl. TRP)	—	$59.8B	$23.3B	$2.49B

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026, tsx-2026-09-25.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes TRP; blank cells skipped.

TC Energy is about an C$84B company, roughly half of Enbridge and more than twice Pembina. It reported about C$16.0B of revenue and C$3.60B of net income over the last twelve months, a net margin above 20%, far richer than Enbridge’s because TC Energy has little pass-through marketing revenue. South Bow is the smallest at about C$10B.

Performance: a three-month slide, a solid year

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
TC Energy (TRP)	−1.7%	−15.1%	−4.2%	+14.5%	+35.2%	+34.0%
Enbridge (ENB)	−2.8%	−15.9%	−11.3%	−2.7%	+32.1%	+14.6%
Pembina (PPL)	−3.4%	−3.7%	+1.3%	+15.6%	+62.2%	+60.6%
Keyera (KEY)	−11.2%	−8.7%	−2.1%	+14.2%	+65.3%	+27.8%
South Bow (SOBO)	−5.6%	−6.4%	+2.9%	+24.7%	+73.2%	+73.2%
Average (incl. TRP)	−4.9%	−10.0%	−2.7%	+13.3%	+53.6%	+42.0%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes TRP; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over three months TC Energy is down about 15%, nearly matching Enbridge’s slide, while Pembina is down only about 4%. Over one year TC Energy is up about 14.5%, in line with Pembina and Keyera, while Enbridge is roughly flat and South Bow leads near 25%. Keyera has the weakest one-month tape, down about 11%. The recent weakness looks sector-wide, concentrated in the two largest pipeline names.

The longer windows are modest. TC Energy is up about 35% over five years and 34% over ten, ahead of Enbridge but behind Pembina and South Bow.

Valuation: average on earnings, rich on sales

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
TC Energy (TRP)	25.25	22.37	—	5.51	3.44	21.55	42.33
Enbridge (ENB)	25.74	21.92	—	1.77	2.50	62.11	70.87
Pembina (PPL)	22.63	21.08	—	4.79	2.43	18.20	244
Keyera (KEY)	37.40	17.95	—	1.92	2.95	—	24.23
South Bow (SOBO)	16.83	18.86	0.38	4.78	2.68	10.75	9.83
Average (incl. TRP)	25.57	20.43	0.38	3.76	2.80	28.15	78.33

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes TRP; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

TC Energy trades at about 25x trailing earnings and 22x forward, close to the peer average of about 26x and 20x. It is the richest name on price to sales, near 5.5x, because its high-margin gas pipelines book less revenue per dollar of profit than Enbridge or Keyera. South Bow looks cheapest on trailing P/E, PEG, free cash flow and cash, while Enbridge is cheapest on sales near 1.8x.

On free cash flow TC Energy is in the middle of the pack, at about 22x against a 28x average. Investors are paying for the coast-to-coast gas franchise, Mexico optionality after the sale, and a dividend near 4.2%. If the redeployed C$560M lands in higher-return projects, earnings growth would bring the multiple down over time; on its own, the sale is too small to move valuation.

Dividend: the lowest yield in the group

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
TC Energy (TRP)	$3.40	4.17%	103.5%
Enbridge (ENB)	$3.77	5.79%	146.4%
Pembina (PPL)	$2.82	4.58%	100.8%
Keyera (KEY)	$2.12	4.24%	152.1%
South Bow (SOBO)	$2.78	5.88%	96.8%
Average (incl. TRP)	$2.98	4.93%	119.9%

Source: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Average includes TRP; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

TC Energy pays C$3.40 a share a year, an indicated yield of about 4.2%, the lowest in this group. The peer average is about 4.9%, with Enbridge near 5.8% and South Bow near 5.9%. Trailing GAAP payout ratios print above 100% for most of these names, including TC Energy near 104%. That is common in midstream, where GAAP earnings sit below distributable cash flow, but it means the payout ratio alone isn’t a reliable coverage signal. Income investors get a solid yield with a stronger one-year price record than Enbridge’s.

Analyst view: consensus near C$100

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
TC Energy (TRP)	Buy	$84.26	$99.57	+18.2%	24
Enbridge (ENB)	Buy	$66.99	$79.83	+19.2%	23
Pembina (PPL)	Buy	$64.24	$72.89	+13.5%	19
Keyera (KEY)	Buy	$53.11	$64.07	+20.6%	15
South Bow (SOBO)	Neutral	$48.51	$52.09	+7.4%	15
Average (incl. TRP)	—	—	—	+15.8%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (September 25, 2026). Target 1Y: S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com TSX forecast pages, pulled 2026-10-01 (TRP 24, ENB 23, PPL 19, KEY 15, SOBO 15). All ≥5 analysts. Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

The TSX screener rates TC Energy a Buy, and the S&P Global consensus target is C$99.57 from 24 analysts, about 18% above the screener price. Recent notes are constructive: Scotiabank reiterated a Buy at C$105 on September 22, TD Cowen upgraded to Buy at C$102 on September 14, BMO has a Buy at C$99, Raymond James a Hold at C$92, and Morgan Stanley moved to Overweight at C$108 after the recent weakness. Peers show similar upside: Enbridge about 19%, Keyera about 21%, Pembina about 14%, and South Bow the outlier near 7%. The Street sees the three-month slide as a buying window for the large pipelines.

Why it matters: from steady gas midstream to capital recycler

The old narrative was TC Energy as a steady Canadian gas midstream with Mexico exposure and a mid-four percent yield. The new narrative asks whether selling mature assets frees capital for higher-return North American projects without shrinking the core franchise.

Income investors care that the indicated yield still clears 4% after the three-month slide. Growth investors care whether redeployment shows up in the next growth slate before the first-half 2027 close. The open question is whether more asset sales follow, and whether they are big enough to matter.

Bull case

1. Cash to redeploy. About C$560M can go into accretive North American growth, while TC Energy keeps about 3,300 km and 8.7 Bcf/d in Mexico.
2. Street support. Targets cluster near C$100, with Scotiabank at C$105 and Morgan Stanley at C$108.
3. Steadier record. A 4.2% yield and a 14.5% one-year gain look steadier than Enbridge’s flat year after its own deal week.

Bear case and risks

1. Too small to matter. At about 0.7% of market value, the sale may not re-rate the stock.
2. Weak tape and payout optics. The stock is down about 15% over three months, and the trailing GAAP payout prints above 100%.
3. Timing and valuation. The close isn’t expected until 2027, with Mexican regulatory and consent risk, and price to sales near 5.5x is the richest in the group.

What to watch

1. First-half 2027 close. Timing, and where the proceeds are redeployed.
2. Q3 results, expected in early November 2026. Updates on the capital program and leverage.
3. Leverage and the dividend growth path after the sale.
4. Follow-on deals. Any further Mexico or Canadian asset sales or growth announcements, and whether the stock closes the gap to the ~C$100 consensus.

Bottom line

TC Energy has earned its reputation as a disciplined gas pipeline operator: high margins, a solid one-year record and a Street that sees about 18% upside. The Guadalajara–Manzanillo sale fits a sensible strategy of recycling mature assets into growth, while leaving most of the Mexico network in place. The issue is scale: at about 0.7% of market value, the deal is a signal, not a catalyst, and the stock still trades near its peers on earnings with the lowest yield in the group. The next test is where the proceeds go, and whether the November results show growth that justifies the targets.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook
• 0:19 What happened
• 1:21 Overview
• 1:45 Performance
• 2:06 Valuation
• 2:33 Dividends
• 2:59 Analyst ratings
• 3:26 Why it matters
• 3:53 Bull case
• 4:21 Bear case
• 4:45 What to watch

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-09-25.csv, 929 rows; September 24 close; CAD); a later September 26 screener refresh was not available, so the tables use this merge. Peers are same-sector (Industrial services) midstream names: Enbridge, Pembina, Keyera and South Bow; Waste Connections was excluded as waste management. Average rows include TRP and skip blank cells. Payout ratios are trailing GAAP figures; values above 100% are common in midstream. Target 1Y is S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com, pulled 2026-10-01 (TRP 24, ENB 23, PPL 19, KEY 15, SOBO 15 analysts; none under 5); MarketBeat cited about C$95.64 from 15 analysts on September 26. The September 30 close of CA$82.39 (stockanalysis.com) is about 2.2% below the screener print. Deal figures are from TC Energy’s September 21, 2026 release.

Sources

• TC Energy news release (GlobeNewswire), September 21, 2026 — agreement to sell Energía Occidente de México to ESENTIA Energy Development affiliates
• Broker notes: TD Cowen (September 14, 2026), Scotiabank (September 22, 2026), BMO, ATB, Raymond James and Morgan Stanley (September 2026)
• stockanalysis.com — S&P Global consensus for TRP, ENB, PPL, KEY and SOBO (pulled 2026-10-01) and September 30 close; MarketBeat TRP consensus (September 26, 2026)
• TSX screener merge September 25, 2026 (929 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: TC Energy logo (File:TC Energy Logo May 2019.svg, public domain); “Panmure Alvar 2” by P199 (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Trans Canada Keystone Oil Pipeline” by shannonpatrick17 (CC BY 2.0); “Natural Gas Pipeline Station” by Mbrickn (CC BY 4.0); “Gasoducto junto a la B-145, Chile” by Diego Delso (CC BY-SA 4.0). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com