Enerflex (EFX) — 1 GW data center power award, backlog above 1.75 GW; stock +14% in a day

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The short version: a gas compression company turns into a data center power play

Enerflex (TSX: EFX), the Calgary-based maker of natural gas compression, processing and power equipment, has spent the past year being re-rated by the market. The stock was already up about 112% over one year and about 12% over one month before October 13, 2026, when it announced an order for more than 1 gigawatt of gas-fired power units for a single North American data center. That session the shares jumped 14.2% to C$39.11. The new story: Enerflex is no longer just an oil-and-gas equipment supplier, but a builder of on-site power for the AI build-out.

The proof point is the backlog. Together with an award of about 450 megawatts on October 1 and other projects, Enerflex’s behind-the-meter power backlog now tops 1.75 gigawatts, with deliveries through 2028. What it has not said is what any of it is worth in dollars. For a new buyer, the question is how much of that is already in a stock that trades near 58x trailing earnings but closer to 17x forward earnings before the jump. Below we go through the award, the backlog, and how Enerflex compares with Hammond Power, TerraVest, ATS and Trican on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: a gigawatt-scale award for one data center

On October 13, 2026, before the market opened, Enerflex announced a major Engineered Systems project:

• Enerflex will design, engineer, fabricate and assemble more than 1 gigawatt of low-emission, behind-the-meter natural gas-fired power generation units
• The customer is a large-scale North American data center development; neither the customer nor the contract value was disclosed
• The work will run through Enerflex’s North American manufacturing operations
• Combined with other awards, including about 450 MW announced on October 1, 2026, the behind-the-meter power backlog now exceeds 1.75 GW, with deliveries through 2028
• Enerflex has authorized about $100 million of investment in its Engineered Systems facilities and capabilities, of which $15 million is in its 2026 capital spending guidance

“Behind-the-meter” means the power is generated on site and feeds the data center directly, so the developer does not have to wait for a utility grid connection. That is exactly the bottleneck AI data centers are running into, and it is why a company best known for gas compression packages is suddenly winning gigawatt-scale power orders. Management also pointed to follow-on work: commissioning, installation, aftermarket service and its ReliaCore digital monitoring platform.

The backlog behind the rally

The October 1 award was already a sizable step: about 450 MW for a North American data center developer, with deliveries starting in 2027 and finishing in 2028. At the time, Enerflex said its power opportunity pipeline continued to exceed 2 GW. The October 13 order is more than twice that size on its own.

For scale, Enerflex’s whole Engineered Systems backlog was about US$1.5B at June 30, 2026 (US$1.453B, up from US$1.227B a year earlier), after second-quarter bookings of US$488M and a 1.6x book-to-bill. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was US$128M, slightly below the year-earlier US$130M. Most of the 1.75 GW of power work was booked after that June snapshot, so the third-quarter report on October 29 is the first chance to see it in dollars. On September 30, Enerflex also closed the sale of most of its Asia Pacific operations, mainly aftermarket services, to INNIO, sharpening its focus on North America, Latin America and the Middle East.

The market did not wait for the dollar figure. On October 13 the shares rose 14.2% to C$39.11, one of the biggest gains on the TSX in a session where the index rose 0.9%.

Business overview: Enerflex vs equipment peers

Enerflex builds and services modular natural gas compression and processing equipment, power generation units and water treatment systems, with manufacturing plants in North America. It earns money three ways: one-off Engineered Systems projects (the cyclical part, now including data center power), energy infrastructure it owns and leases to customers under long contracts, and after-market services on installed equipment. The contracted infrastructure and service lines are the steadier half of the business.

In the TSX screener Enerflex sits in Producer manufacturing, so the peers come from the same sector, picked for industrial, energy and power-equipment exposure: Hammond Power (power transformers, another data center demand story), TerraVest (energy and industrial equipment fabrication), ATS (automation systems) and Trican (oilfield pressure pumping). We left out the auto-parts and vehicle makers in the sector (Magna, Linamar, BRP, NFI, Martinrea), Richelieu (a hardware distributor), and smaller loss-making names such as Ballard Power.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Enerflex (EFX)	$33.82	$4.13B	$3.55B	$72M
Hammond Power (HPS.A)	$293.28	$3.49B	$1.06B	$62M
TerraVest (TVK)	$110.87	$2.40B	$1.73B	$93M
ATS Corp. (ATS)	$25.37	$2.49B	$2.93B	$47M
Trican (TCW)	$6.14	$1.29B	$1.17B	$89M
Average (incl. EFX)	—	$2.76B	$2.09B	$72M

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026, tsx-2026-10-08.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes EFX; blank cells skipped.

Before the jump, Enerflex was the largest company on the table at about C$4.1B of market value, just ahead of Hammond Power, and it has by far the most revenue at about C$3.6B. But last-twelve-months net income was only about C$72M, a net margin near 2%, against roughly 6% for Hammond and 8% for Trican. That thin profit line is what makes its trailing valuation look stretched.

Performance: one of two data center winners in the group

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
Enerflex (EFX)	+12.1%	−2.4%	+17.1%	+112%	+252%	+131%
Hammond Power (HPS.A)	+27.7%	−8.5%	+34.0%	+117%	+2,611%	+4,304%
TerraVest (TVK)	−6.7%	−4.3%	−14.8%	−23.1%	+346%	+1,281%
ATS Corp. (ATS)	−5.6%	−34.3%	−40.5%	−31.9%	−38.5%	+131%
Trican (TCW)	−4.4%	−7.0%	−14.1%	−0.3%	+94.9%	+91.3%
Average (incl. EFX)	+4.6%	−11.3%	−3.6%	+34.8%	+653%	+1,187%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes EFX; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over one year, Enerflex more than doubled, up about 112%, and only Hammond Power did better at about 117%, also riding data center power demand. Over the last month Enerflex rose about 12% before the award, and Hammond about 28%, while TerraVest, ATS and Trican all slipped. The split is stock-specific, not sector-wide: TerraVest and ATS are down over one year and Trican is flat. Over five years, Enerflex is up about 252%, well behind Hammond’s extraordinary run but ahead of every other name here. The October 13 jump is not in these columns.

Valuation: expensive on trailing earnings, modest on forward earnings and cash flow

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
Enerflex (EFX)	57.62	17.06	—	1.19	2.49	12.48	39.36
Hammond Power (HPS.A)	56.68	28.30	—	3.34	9.05	—	104
TerraVest (TVK)	26.41	27.24	3.91	1.42	3.11	22.50	111
ATS Corp. (ATS)	52.94	15.33	—	0.87	1.37	10.05	12.48
Trican (TCW)	14.27	9.44	—	1.11	1.88	8.05	83.91
Average (incl. EFX)	41.59	19.47	3.91	1.59	3.58	13.27	70.20

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes EFX; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

On trailing earnings Enerflex looks expensive at about 58x, above the group average near 42x, and closer to 67x after the jump. The reason is a thin trailing profit: diluted earnings per share over the last twelve months were only about C$0.59, down about 59% from a year earlier. Analysts expect adjusted earnings to nearly double this year, which is why the forward P/E of about 17x (roughly 20x at C$39.11) sits below the group average of about 19x and far below Hammond Power and TerraVest.

On other measures Enerflex is middle of the pack: about 1.2x sales and 2.5x book, both below the averages, and about 12x free cash flow, roughly in line with the group’s 13x. Trican and ATS are the cheapest names on most columns, but both are shrinking or flat businesses, so cheap is not the same as better value. For Enerflex, the multiple question really turns on whether the power backlog lifts margins and cash flow in 2027 and 2028.

Dividend: small, well covered, not the reason to own it

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
Enerflex (EFX)	$0.155	0.50%	28.0%
Hammond Power (HPS.A)	$1.10	0.40%	21.3%
TerraVest (TVK)	$0.70	0.72%	18.1%
ATS Corp. (ATS)	—	—	—
Trican (TCW)	$0.21	3.58%	50.6%
Average (incl. EFX)	$0.54	1.30%	29.5%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes EFX; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

Enerflex pays about C$0.155 a share a year, an indicated yield near 0.5% before the jump (lower after it). The payout ratio is about 28% of trailing earnings, so the dividend is comfortably covered even on thin profits, and the annual dividend per share is up about 38% from a year earlier. That said, this is not an income stock: Trican is the income name in the group at about 3.6%, Hammond and TerraVest yield under 1%, and ATS pays no dividend.

Analyst view: Strong Buy, with room to the average target

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Enerflex (EFX)	Strong buy	$33.82	$48.69	+44.0%	10
Hammond Power (HPS.A)	Strong buy	$293.28	$383.50	+30.8%	8
TerraVest (TVK)	Buy	$110.87	$160.33	+44.6%	6
ATS Corp. (ATS)	Buy	$25.37	$37.30	+47.0%	8
Trican (TCW)	Buy	$6.14	$7.84	+27.7%	8
Average (incl. EFX)	—	—	—	+38.8%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Target 1Y: consensus via stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence), pulled 2026-10-14: EFX C$48.69 (10; updated October 13, after the CIBC upgrade); HPS.A C$383.50 (8); TVK C$160.33 (6); ATS C$37.30 (8); TCW C$7.84 (8). None under 5 analysts. Prices are the October 8 screener close, before EFX’s October 13 jump to C$39.11 (+24.5% upside at that close). Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

Analysts rate Enerflex a Strong Buy. The average one-year target is C$48.69 from 10 analysts, about 44% above the pre-jump price in the table and about 24% above the C$39.11 October 13 close. On the day of the award, CIBC upgraded the stock to Outperformer from Neutral with a US$35 target. Earlier in October, after the first data center award, Raymond James raised its target to C$49 (Outperform), ATB Cormark to C$52 (Outperform) and Acumen to C$48 (Buy). Several of those numbers were set before the 1 GW order, so further revisions are possible. Every peer also shows double-digit upside to its consensus, so the Street remains constructive on the whole group.

Why it matters: from gas-cycle supplier to AI power builder

The old story was a gas compression and processing company whose orders rose and fell with oil and gas drilling budgets. The new story is a supplier of on-site power for AI data centers, with a backlog that now runs into 2028 and a pipeline that management described as above 2 GW earlier this month.

That shift matters for how investors value the business. Equipment makers tied to commodity cycles usually trade on low multiples; companies with multi-year, contracted growth tied to data centers often trade on much higher ones. The open question is whether these orders turn into real margin and cash flow, or whether the market is pricing in more than the contracts will deliver once the dollar values are disclosed.

Bull case

1. Gigawatt-scale wins. A single order above 1 GW shows Enerflex can compete for the largest behind-the-meter jobs, and the pipeline was above 2 GW in early October.
2. Modest forward multiples. About 17–20x forward earnings and about 12x free cash flow are not demanding for a company with a multi-year data center backlog.
3. Estimates may move up. Many analyst forecasts and targets were set before the October 13 award, so numbers could still be revised higher after the third-quarter report.

Bear case and risks

1. No dollar value yet. Investors are trading on gigawatts, not disclosed revenue or margin, and the customer is unnamed.
2. Execution risk. Large builds through 2028 carry delay and cost-overrun risk, while the roughly $100M plant expansion is still underway.
3. A big run already. The stock more than doubled in a year before the 14% jump, and trailing earnings are thin, so any disappointment could hit hard.

What to watch

1. Third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, and any dollar value or margin detail for the power backlog.
2. Margins on the new power work versus the traditional compression business.
3. Progress on the ~$100M facility expansion and whether deliveries stay on the 2027–2028 schedule.
4. More data center awards from the opportunity pipeline, and analyst target changes after the print.

Bottom line

Enerflex has earned its re-rating with two data center awards in two weeks and a power backlog above 1.75 GW, turning a cyclical gas equipment maker into one of the TSX’s clearest AI power plays. The problem is visibility: the company has disclosed gigawatts, not dollars, and the stock has already more than doubled. On forward earnings the valuation still looks reasonable, but only if the backlog converts into higher margins and cash flow. The October 29 third-quarter report is the next real test.

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Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — Enerflex’s 1 GW data center order
• 0:22 News — the award, the 1.75 GW backlog, the 14% jump
• 1:09 Overview vs equipment peers
• 1:28 Performance heatmap
• 1:47 Valuation
• 2:13 Dividends
• 2:28 Analyst ratings
• 2:52 Why it matters
• 3:12 Bull case
• 3:32 Bear case
• 3:50 What to watch + close

Data notes

Screener figures (price, performance, valuation, dividends, ratings) come from the TSX screener merge tsx-2026-10-08.csv (3,581 rows; EFX present), in Canadian dollars; the EFX price of C$33.82 predates the October 13 jump, and the October 13 close of C$39.11 (+14.2%) is from market data for news context. Peers are from the same screener sector, Producer manufacturing, chosen for industrial, energy and power-equipment exposure; auto/vehicle makers, Richelieu and sub-C$1B or loss-making names were left out. Averages include EFX and skip blank cells; ATS pays no dividend and is excluded from the dividend averages. Target 1Y figures are consensus targets from stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence), pulled 2026-10-14, with analyst counts in the table caption; none has fewer than 5 analysts. Enerflex reports in U.S. dollars, so company figures quoted from its releases (backlog, EBITDA, the ~$100M expansion) are in US$.

Sources

• Enerflex news release, October 13, 2026 — “Enerflex Announces Major Project Award and Increases Behind-the-Meter Power Generation Backlog to Over 1.75 Gigawatts” (GlobeNewswire / SEC Form 6-K)
• Enerflex news release, October 1, 2026 — “Enerflex Ltd. Announces Contract Award for Large-Scale Data Center Development” (GlobeNewswire)
• Enerflex news release, September 30, 2026 — Asia Pacific divestiture completed; Q3 results timing (GlobeNewswire)
• Enerflex Q2 2026 results and MD&A, August 6, 2026
• TIKR — “Enerflex Soars 13% on Gigawatt Data Center Power Award” (October 13, 2026); CIBC upgrade to Outperformer, US$35 target
• The Globe and Mail and The Core Quant — TSX market wrap, October 13, 2026 (EFX +14.16% to C$39.11)
• stockanalysis.com — Enerflex, Hammond Power, TerraVest, ATS and Trican forecast pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus, pulled 2026-10-14)
• MarketBeat — Enerflex analyst target changes (Raymond James, ATB Cormark, Acumen, October 2, 2026)
• TSX screener merge tsx-2026-10-08.csv (3,581 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: “Datacenter Server Racks (22370909788)” by Carl Lender (CC BY 2.0); “A view from a natural gas combined cycle power plant” by Harald the Bard (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Caterpillar 3456E Container Generator” by Reise Reise (CC BY-SA 4.0). The generic photos illustrate data centers and gas-fired power equipment; they do not show Enerflex’s own facilities or the customer’s site. Enerflex logo from enerflex.com, used for identification. No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com