Bombardier (BBD.B) — upgraded after the Trump threat; ~23x trailing P/E, lowest in its peer group

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The short version: a cheaper jet maker gets its upgrade

Bombardier (TSX: BBD.B), the Montreal maker of Global and Challenger business jets, was CA$299.37 in our October 8 table and jumped about 7% on October 15 to roughly C$310 after National Bank upgraded the stock to Outperform. Over the past twelve months the shares are up about 50%, but they slipped about 13% over the three months to October 8, a stretch that included President Trump’s September 7 threat to Bombardier’s U.S. sales. The new story is a cash-generating jet maker that now trades at a discount to its Canadian aerospace peers.

At about 23x trailing earnings, Bombardier has the lowest P/E in its peer group, so the question for a new buyer is whether that discount is a trade-risk penalty that is about to fade or a fair price for a cyclical business. Below we go through the upgrade, the Wichita investment, the second-quarter print and backlog, and how Bombardier compares with Celestica, CAE, MDA Space and Magellan Aerospace on size, returns, valuation and analyst targets.

What happened: an October 15 upgrade, six weeks after the Trump post

On October 15, 2026, National Bank upgraded Bombardier to Outperform from Sector Perform with a C$360 price target. The same day:

• Scotiabank kept its Sector Outperform rating and trimmed its target to C$370 from C$380,
• the shares rose about 7% on the session, among the best performers on the TSX Composite that day,
• Bombardier announced about $50 million of investments at its Wichita, Kansas site, including a new North American Learning Center for newly hired aircraft technicians and an expanded wheel-and-tire repair shop.

The Wichita news matters because of the backdrop. On September 7, President Trump posted that Bombardier could not sell in the United States unless it builds there. So far, no formal ban, tariff or certification action has followed, and Bombardier’s jets remain sellable in the U.S. Wichita is not a new assembly line, but it deepens a U.S. footprint that already includes service centres and parts work, and it is the kind of step that helps the “build here” argument. The upgrade suggests at least one large Canadian broker thinks the market had priced in too much trade risk.

The Q2 print behind the upgrade

The fundamentals were already improving before the upgrade. Bombardier’s second quarter, reported July 30, 2026 (all figures US$):

• Revenue of $2.15 billion, up 6% year over year, with 32 aircraft delivered.
• Record services revenue of $674 million, up 14% — the steadier, higher-margin aftermarket business.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $325 million, up 9%, a 15.1% margin.
• Free cash flow of $228 million, a $392 million swing from cash usage a year earlier.
• Backlog of $21.8 billion, up $4.3 billion since December, on a 1.5x unit book-to-bill led by Global 8000 orders.

Management says it remains on track for its raised 2026 guidance, including more than 157 deliveries, more than $10 billion of revenue and more than $1 billion of free cash flow. Debt reduction of more than $1.1 billion in the first half took adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA down to about 1.6x, and the next maturity is not until November 2030. The soft spot is deliveries: 32 in the quarter versus 36 a year earlier, which puts more weight on the second half.

Business overview: Bombardier vs Canadian aerospace and tech peers

Bombardier today is a pure business-aviation company. It designs, builds and services the Challenger and Global families, runs a fast-growing service network for a fleet of more than 5,200 aircraft, and has a smaller but expanding defence business that converts Global jets for special-mission roles. The aircraft side is cyclical and tied to the spending of the very wealthy and corporate flight departments; services and defence are steadier.

On the TSX screener, Bombardier sits in the Electronic technology sector. Celestica (CLS) is the sector’s largest name and a useful contrast on growth and valuation. MDA Space (MDA) is the space and defence systems maker, and Magellan Aerospace (MAL) builds aerostructures and engine components. CAE (CAE), the flight-simulator and pilot-training company, sits in the screener’s Commercial services sector, but it is the most business-comparable Canadian aviation name, so we include it as a documented closest-sector exception. We left out smaller and loss-making names such as Kraken Robotics.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Bombardier (BBD.B)	$299.37	$29.7B	$13.5B	$1.36B
Celestica (CLS)	$530.01	$66.8B	$21.6B	$1.54B
CAE (CAE)	$33.01	$10.6B	$4.99B	$287M
MDA Space (MDA)	$41.34	$6.70B	$1.87B	$106M
Magellan (MAL)	$31.99	$1.83B	$1.12B	$60M
Average (incl. BBD.B)	—	$23.1B	$8.61B	$672M

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026, tsx-2026-10-08.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes BBD.B; blank cells skipped.

Bombardier is the second-largest company here at about C$29.7 billion, behind only Celestica, and it booked about C$13.5 billion of revenue and C$1.36 billion of net income over the last twelve months. Only Celestica earned more, which makes Bombardier’s lower multiple in the valuation table stand out.

Performance: up 50% in a year, but the summer was rough

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
Bombardier (BBD.B)	−2.1%	−13.2%	+13.6%	+50.4%	+449%	+514%
Celestica (CLS)	+22.3%	+0.2%	+14.0%	+60.2%	+4,549%	+3,601%
CAE (CAE)	−1.9%	−9.2%	−13.4%	−18.3%	−10.1%	+75.7%
MDA Space (MDA)	+3.0%	−19.4%	−1.6%	+14.8%	+148%	+192%
Magellan (MAL)	+0.8%	−10.0%	+27.2%	+84.3%	+215%	+98.8%
Average (incl. BBD.B)	+4.4%	−10.3%	+8.0%	+38.3%	+1,070%	+896%

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes BBD.B; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over twelve months Bombardier is up about 50%, behind Magellan’s 84% and Celestica’s 60%, but far ahead of CAE, which is down about 18%. The one-month move to October 8 was close to flat at about −2%, and the three-month window shows a 13% drop, which lines up with the summer pullback and the September trade headline. The October 15 jump came after these figures.

Over five and ten years Bombardier’s gain of roughly 449% and 514% reflects the turnaround from near-distress, the sale of its rail and commercial aircraft businesses, and the shift to business jets. Celestica’s multi-thousand-percent run is in a league of its own.

Valuation: the cheapest earnings multiple in the group

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
Bombardier (BBD.B)	22.72	21.84	0.21	2.28	—	10.08	14.50
Celestica (CLS)	39.82	25.27	0.39	2.98	17.33	85.90	81.03
CAE (CAE)	37.12	25.84	—	2.18	1.96	13.03	18.70
MDA Space (MDA)	51.91	28.57	—	3.27	3.04	—	14.81
Magellan (MAL)	30.67	—	0.55	1.67	2.11	—	44.76
Average (incl. BBD.B)	36.45	25.38	0.38	2.47	6.11	36.34	34.76

Source: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Average includes BBD.B; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

This is where Bombardier stands out. Its trailing P/E of about 22.7 is the lowest in the group, against an average of about 36, and its forward P/E of about 21.8 is also the cheapest. It is lowest on price to free cash flow too, at about 10x, and on PEG and price to cash. On price to sales, Magellan is cheaper, and CAE has the lowest price to book.

Bombardier’s price-to-book cell is blank, so lean on the earnings and cash-flow multiples. The discount has reasons: a cyclical end market, a heavier debt load than most peers even after this year’s repayments, and the U.S. trade overhang. If trade risk fades and free cash flow keeps coming in above US$1 billion a year, the gap to the 36x group average looks wide; if jet demand cools, a low multiple can get lower.

Analyst view: Buy-rated, with modest upside after the jump

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Bombardier (BBD.B)	Buy	$299.37	$330.62	+10.4%	11
Celestica (CLS)	Strong buy	$530.01	$682.26	+28.7%	22
CAE (CAE)	Buy	$33.01	$47.71	+44.5%	12
MDA Space (MDA)	Strong buy	$41.34	$63.64	+53.9%	12
Magellan (MAL)	Strong buy	$31.99	$38.67	+20.9%	3
Average (incl. BBD.B)	—	—	—	+31.7%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (October 8, 2026). Target 1Y: MarketBeat consensus (CAD): BBD.B C$330.62 (11 analysts; 6 Buy / 4 Hold / 1 Sell, pulled 2026-10-17 from the Oct 15 Scotiabank note page); CAE C$47.71 (12, pulled 2026-10-17); MDA C$63.64 (12), MAL C$38.67 (3 — thin), pulled 2026-10-16. CLS C$682.26 (22): S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com, pulled 2026-10-17 (MarketBeat’s TSE:CLS figure looked stale). Screener prices are October 8 close; BBD.B traded at C$309.19 on October 15 per MarketBeat. Upside = target ÷ price − 1. Thin coverage (<5 analysts): MAL.

Bombardier carries a Buy rating in our table. The consensus one-year target is C$330.62 from 11 analysts — six Buy, four Hold and one Sell — about 10% above the C$299.37 table price and closer to 7% above the roughly C$310 level after the October 15 jump. National Bank’s new target is C$360 with an Outperform rating, and Scotiabank sits at C$370 (Sector Outperform), near the top of recent calls. Among peers, CAE and MDA Space show bigger upside to their consensus targets, while Celestica’s large implied upside partly reflects its sharp tech-selloff drop since our table date. Magellan’s target comes from only three analysts.

Why it matters: from debt-heavy turnaround to cash generator

The old narrative was Bombardier as a debt-heavy turnaround selling jets to the ultra-rich, priced for the risk that cash would never show up. The new narrative is a cash-generating jet maker with a fast-growing services arm and a defence business, with free cash flow guided above US$1 billion for 2026 and leverage near management’s target.

The open question is trade. The Wichita investment deepens Bombardier’s American footprint, and the National Bank upgrade suggests the market is starting to price lower risk. But until there is clarity on U.S. trade policy toward Canadian aircraft, part of the discount to peers is likely to stay.

Bull case

1. Cheapest in the group. The lowest trailing P/E (~22.7), forward P/E (~21.8) and price to free cash flow (~10x) among these peers, against a ~36x average trailing multiple.
2. Visibility. A US$21.8 billion backlog, a 1.5x book-to-bill in Q2 and record services revenue give years of visibility, with Global 8000 demand leading.
3. A healing balance sheet. More than US$1.1 billion of debt repaid in the first half, net leverage about 1.6x, and no maturities until 2030.

Bear case and risks

1. U.S. trade risk is not gone. A tariff, sales restriction or certification fight would hit Bombardier’s biggest market, and the September 7 post shows how fast the headline risk can return.
2. Cyclical demand. Deliveries slipped to 32 in Q2 from 36 a year earlier, and business-jet orders can fall quickly if wealthy buyers and corporations pull back.
3. Much of the turnaround is priced. The stock is up about 50% in a year, and the consensus target leaves only modest upside from current levels.

What to watch

1. Q3 results on November 5, 2026. Deliveries versus the 157-plus guide, free cash flow, and whether the backlog holds above US$21 billion.
2. U.S. trade policy. Any formal action on Canadian aircraft, or any easing of the threat.
3. Global 8000 and defence orders. Order momentum and new special-mission contracts.
4. Analyst targets. Whether the stock pushes toward the C$330.62 consensus and whether more brokers follow National Bank.

Bottom line

Bombardier has earned its place as a cash generator: record services revenue, positive free cash flow, falling debt and a US$21.8 billion backlog. The issue has been the discount, and at about 23x trailing and 22x forward earnings it is the cheapest stock in this Canadian aerospace peer group, partly because of the cyclical end market and partly because of the U.S. trade threat. National Bank’s upgrade and the Wichita investment suggest that discount may be starting to narrow. The next test is the November 5 third-quarter report, which needs to show deliveries catching up in the second half.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — Upgraded after the Trump threat
• 0:20 What happened — the upgrade, Wichita, the Q2 print and backlog
• 1:30 Overview — Bombardier vs peers
• 1:54 Performance heatmap
• 2:14 Valuation (~23x)
• 2:35 Analyst ratings & targets
• 2:59 Why it matters
• 3:21 Bull case
• 3:42 Bear case
• 4:03 What to watch

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-10-08.csv, 3,581 rows; October 8 close; CAD). BBD.B is not in that export, so Bombardier’s row uses the BBD.A line; market cap, revenue, net income and multiples are company-level and identical for both classes, and the two classes trade within about 1% of each other. Peers are same-sector (Electronic technology) — Celestica (sector’s largest), MDA Space (space and defence) and Magellan Aerospace (aerostructures) — plus CAE as a closest-sector exception (Commercial services; the most comparable Canadian aviation name); Kraken Robotics and sub-C$600M names were left out. Bombardier’s price-to-book cell is blank in the source data. Average rows include BBD.B and skip blank cells. Target 1Y: MarketBeat consensus (CAD) for BBD.B (11 analysts; 6 Buy / 4 Hold / 1 Sell) and CAE (12), pulled 2026-10-17; MDA (12) and MAL (3 — thin coverage), pulled 2026-10-16; CLS from S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com (22), pulled 2026-10-17, because MarketBeat’s TSE:CLS target looked stale. Bombardier reports in U.S. dollars; quarterly figures above are US$. The ~7% October 15 move and C$309–311 price level are from MarketBeat and Investing.com session reports.

Sources

• Bombardier news release, July 30, 2026 — “Bombardier Reports Significant Second-Quarter Free Cash Flow Growth and Strong Profitability as Backlog Lengthens”
• Bombardier news release, October 15, 2026 — “Bombardier Solidifies Commitment to Kansas by Growing Site Capabilities Through $50 Million of Investments”
• Bombardier news release, October 16, 2026 — “Bombardier to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 5, 2026”
• TheFly via TipRanks, October 15, 2026 — “Bombardier upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at National Bank”
• MarketBeat, October 15, 2026 — Scotiabank target change and BBD.B consensus; CAE, MDA and MAL consensus (October 16–17, 2026)
• stockanalysis.com (S&P Global consensus) — Celestica TSX:CLS forecast, October 2026
• Reuters and CBC, September 7, 2026 — coverage of President Trump’s Bombardier post
• Investing.com, October 15, 2026 — TSX close and top performers
• TSX screener merge October 8, 2026 (3,581 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: Bombardier logo (File:Bombardier 2024.svg, public domain); “FRBR 240726 Bombardier Global 8000 N100BD 01” by Oren Rozen (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Bombardier Global 7500, Paris Air Show 2019, Le Bourget (SIAE8909)” by Matti Blume (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Netjets Bombardier Challenger 350 N757QS BWI MD1” by Acroterion (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Bombardier Global 7500 CS-ESS BWI MD1” by Acroterion (CC BY-SA 4.0). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com