AltaGas (ALA) — record Q3 as normalized EBITDA jumps 45% on LPG exports, but a port strike slows loading; ~28x trailing P/E

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The short version: a record quarter, a quiet stock

AltaGas (TSX: ALA), the Calgary company that runs U.S. gas utilities and a Canadian export business shipping propane and butane to Asia, closed at CA$55.34 on October 23, 2026, up about 28% over twelve months and about 5% over the past month. Its third-quarter report on October 29 was the best third quarter in its history: normalized EBITDA rose 45% to C$389 million, and the company exported a record 147,176 barrels a day of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The stock closed the day flat at CA$56.22.

The reason is the new story. AltaGas is now mostly an export platform with a utility underneath, and the export side just ran into a labour dispute at the Prince Rupert port terminal that serves it. At about 28x trailing earnings and only about 2% below the average analyst target, the question for a new buyer is how much of the export growth is already in the price. Below we go through the quarter, the strike, and how AltaGas compares with its closest TSX midstream peers — Enbridge, TC Energy, Pembina, Keyera and Gibson Energy — on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: Q3 2026 results on October 29

On October 29, 2026, before the market open, AltaGas reported its third-quarter results:

• Normalized EBITDA of C$389M, up from C$268M a year earlier (+45%) and above the roughly C$335M analysts expected.
• Normalized EPS of C$0.29, up from C$0.04. Third quarters are seasonally small for a heating-gas utility, so the per-share number is low in absolute terms.
• Reported (GAAP) loss of C$0.07 a share, about the same as last year’s C$0.08 loss. The main drag was C$141M of unrealized losses on hedging contracts, which are paper losses that reverse as the hedges settle.
• Revenue of C$3.43B, up 32%, and normalized funds from operations of C$0.80 a share, up from C$0.49.
• Guidance: management now expects 2026 results toward the high end of the ranges it raised in July: C$2.0B to C$2.1B of normalized EBITDA and C$2.35 to C$2.60 of normalized EPS.

Where the growth came from

• Midstream EBITDA rose 65% to C$337M, driven by export volumes and margins, the Pipestone II gas plant and higher fractionation and liquids-handling volumes. Gathering and processing volumes in the Montney rose 20%.
• Record exports: 147,176 barrels a day of LPG went to Asia on 24 very large gas carriers, up 11%. About 89,000 barrels a day left from the Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal near Prince Rupert and about 58,000 from Ferndale in Washington State.
• Utilities EBITDA was roughly flat at C$66M (from C$68M). Washington Gas won a US$74M rate increase in Virginia with a higher allowed return on equity (9.80% at the midpoint), and SEMCO won a US$33M increase in Michigan from January 2027.
• Balance sheet: adjusted net debt to normalized EBITDA fell to 4.3x, below the company’s own 4.5x–5.0x target range.

The catch: a strike at Prince Rupert

Workers at Trigon Pacific Terminals, which provides rail logistics and berthing at the Ridley Island propane terminal, have been on strike since October 2. Until this week AltaGas said the impact was minimal. On October 27 the Canada Industrial Relations Board ordered Trigon to stop using contractors for some duties, including handling the products AltaGas exports. On the call, CEO Vern Yu said the company disagrees with the ruling and will take legal action, but will meanwhile operate under modified plans that slow vessel loading below planned rates. Management still expects the full year near the top of guidance, including that impact.

That is the balance the market struck on results day: a clear beat on the quarter, a less certain fourth quarter, and a stock that finished flat while Enbridge, TC Energy and Pembina each rose between about 1.5% and 2%.

Business overview: AltaGas vs Canadian midstream peers

AltaGas has two halves. The Utilities business is Washington Gas (Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia) and SEMCO (Michigan), regulated natural-gas distribution that earns most of its money in winter. The Midstream business gathers and processes gas in the Montney, separates natural gas liquids, and exports propane and butane to buyers across Asia from two West Coast terminals. A third Ridley Island export site, REEF, is about 90% built.

On the TSX screener, AltaGas sits in the Utilities sector. For this quarter we use a documented sector exception: 87% of Q3 normalized EBITDA (C$337M of C$389M) came from Midstream, so the peers are business-comparable TSX midstream names, which the screener files under Industrial services and Distribution services. Enbridge (ENB) and TC Energy (TRP) are the large pipeline companies, and Enbridge also owns gas utilities. Pembina (PPL) and Keyera (KEY) are the Western Canadian processing and liquids businesses closest to AltaGas’s export chain. Gibson Energy (GEI) is the smaller terminals and marketing name. South Bow was left out because it has no Canadian-dollar target, and the regulated utilities (Fortis, Emera, Hydro One) are covered in our utilities sector note.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
AltaGas (ALA)	$55.34	$17.3B	$13.8B	$632M
Enbridge (ENB)	$67.37	$152.8B	$83.3B	$6.13B
TC Energy (TRP)	$87.32	$91.0B	$16.0B	$3.60B
Pembina (PPL)	$70.44	$41.0B	$7.84B	$1.78B
Keyera (KEY)	$54.92	$16.1B	$7.21B	$361M
Gibson Energy (GEI)	$33.61	$5.80B	$12.8B	$169M
Average (incl. ALA)	—	$54.0B	$23.5B	$2.11B

Source: TSX screener (October 25, 2026, tsx-2026-10-25.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes ALA; blank cells skipped.

AltaGas is a mid-sized company in this group at C$17.3B of market value, almost exactly Keyera’s size and about one-ninth of Enbridge. Its C$13.8B of revenue is high for its size because utility and marketing sales pass through the income statement. Net income of C$632M is the cleaner size check, well above Keyera’s C$361M and Gibson’s C$169M, but far below Pembina’s C$1.78B.

Performance: in the pack over a year, ahead of Enbridge

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
AltaGas (ALA)	+5.3%	−3.0%	+11.6%	+28.3%	+108%	+59.6%
Enbridge (ENB)	−0.2%	−15.3%	−6.4%	+0.6%	+27.8%	+15.8%
TC Energy (TRP)	+3.2%	−11.4%	+4.7%	+20.3%	+29.3%	+40.1%
Pembina (PPL)	+9.2%	−2.4%	+19.5%	+30.4%	+68.5%	+68.4%
Keyera (KEY)	+2.6%	−9.4%	+9.8%	+26.2%	+70.3%	+31.3%
Gibson Energy (GEI)	+8.2%	+8.7%	+20.7%	+39.0%	+37.3%	+84.8%
Average (incl. ALA)	+4.7%	−5.5%	+10.0%	+24.1%	+56.9%	+50.0%

Source: TSX screener (October 25, 2026). Average includes ALA; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over one month, AltaGas is up 5.3%, behind Pembina’s 9.2% and Gibson’s 8.2% but ahead of Enbridge, which slipped 0.2%. Over one year, AltaGas’s +28.3% sits in the middle of the pack with Pembina (+30.4%) and Keyera (+26.2%), behind Gibson’s +39.0% and far ahead of Enbridge’s +0.6%. The whole group gave back ground over three months, so October’s bounce is partly a recovery.

Over five years, AltaGas has more than doubled (+108%), the best in the group, as the company sold assets, cut debt and leaned into exports. The ten-year +59.6% is in line with the group average, a reminder that the earlier years included a dividend cut and a heavy debt load after the Washington Gas purchase.

Valuation: middle of the group on earnings, cheapest on book

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
AltaGas (ALA)	28.09	22.52	—	1.25	1.85	—	132
Enbridge (ENB)	25.88	22.57	—	1.77	2.51	62.46	71.28
TC Energy (TRP)	26.17	22.88	—	5.64	3.57	22.33	43.87
Pembina (PPL)	24.82	22.97	—	5.13	2.67	19.96	268
Keyera (KEY)	38.68	18.85	—	1.97	3.05	—	25.05
Gibson Energy (GEI)	33.68	23.03	9.83	0.45	5.65	20.61	146
Average (incl. ALA)	29.55	22.14	9.83	2.70	3.22	31.34	114

Source: TSX screener (October 25, 2026). Average includes ALA; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

AltaGas trades at about 28x trailing earnings, a bit below the group average of 29.55. Pembina is the cheapest at 24.82, and Keyera the most expensive at 38.68. On expected earnings, AltaGas is about 22.5x, right on the group average of 22.14, while Keyera’s forward multiple drops to 18.85, the lowest here. On that measure, the market already prices AltaGas like a full midstream company, not like a discounted utility.

AltaGas has the lowest price to book in the group, at 1.85. That reflects the large regulated asset base on its balance sheet, which earns an allowed return rather than a market one. Price to free cash flow is blank because heavy spending on REEF and on utility pipe replacement keeps free cash flow thin. If REEF starts on time and spending eases, that is the multiple that should start to show up.

Dividend: the lowest yield, the most room to grow

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
AltaGas (ALA)	$1.26	2.41%	65.8%
Enbridge (ENB)	$3.77	5.76%	146.4%
TC Energy (TRP)	$3.40	4.02%	103.5%
Pembina (PPL)	$2.82	4.17%	100.8%
Keyera (KEY)	$2.12	4.10%	152.1%
Gibson Energy (GEI)	$1.72	5.36%	175.4%
Average (incl. ALA)	$2.52	4.30%	124.0%

Source: TSX screener (October 25, 2026). Average includes ALA; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

AltaGas is the low-yield name here, at 2.41% against a group average of 4.30%. Enbridge (5.76%) and Gibson (5.36%) are the income picks. The trade-off is coverage: AltaGas has the lowest payout ratio at 65.8% of trailing earnings, while every peer pays out more than its trailing accounting earnings, from Pembina’s 100.8% to Gibson’s 175.4%. Pipeline payouts are usually judged on cash flow rather than accounting earnings, but the gap still says AltaGas has more room to raise its dividend. The current quarterly dividend is C$0.334, raised from C$0.315 in March 2026.

Analyst view: a Buy with little room to the target

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
AltaGas (ALA)	Buy	$55.34	$57.44	+3.8%	7
Enbridge (ENB)	Buy	$67.37	$77.63	+15.2%	13
TC Energy (TRP)	Buy	$87.32	$96.29	+10.3%	15
Pembina (PPL)	Buy	$70.44	$69.29	−1.6%	13
Keyera (KEY)	Buy	$54.92	$73.00	+32.9%	14
Gibson Energy (GEI)	Buy	$33.61	$33.10	−1.5%	9
Average (incl. ALA)	—	—	—	+9.8%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (October 25, 2026). Target 1Y: MarketBeat TSE-page consensus in C$: ALA C$57.44 (7 analysts: 6 Buy, 1 Hold; range C$51-C$63) pulled Oct 30 2026; ENB C$77.63 (13), TRP C$96.29 (15), PPL C$69.29 (13), KEY C$73.00 (14), GEI C$33.10 (9) pulled Oct 27 2026. Screener prices = October 23, 2026 closes (merge 2026-10-25). Oct 29 closes from Yahoo Finance chart history. Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

The TSX screener rates AltaGas a Buy. The consensus one-year target is C$57.44 from 7 analysts (6 Buy, 1 Hold), about 3.8% above the October 23 price and only about 2.2% above the October 29 close of C$56.22. The range runs from C$51 to C$63. On October 22, CIBC downgraded the stock to Neutral with a C$58 target, and Jefferies kept a Buy with a C$64 target (reported October 26). The earlier 2026 moves were all target raises: Scotiabank to C$62, ATB Cormark to C$63, RBC and BMO to C$59, and National Bank to C$60.

Measured against the October 29 closes, analysts see about 13% upside for Enbridge and about 33% for Keyera, while Pembina and Gibson already trade above their averages. The Street still likes AltaGas, but after the five-year run its targets have not moved much past the share price. Targets often rise after a strong quarter, so the next round of broker notes is worth watching.

Why it matters: from a utility with exports to an export platform with a utility

The old narrative was AltaGas as a U.S. gas utility with a side business in exports, valued for steady regulated earnings and a modest dividend. The new narrative is an export platform that links Western Canadian gas fields to buyers in Asia, with the utilities as a stable base underneath.

That shift brings faster growth: Midstream supplied almost nine-tenths of this quarter’s EBITDA, and LNG Canada’s second phase should mean more gas and more liquids to export. It also brings new risks. Port labour, shipping costs and the spread between Asian and North American propane prices now matter more to AltaGas than a rate case does. The October strike ruling is the first real test of that exposure.

Bull case

1. Export demand is strong. Management says Asian buyers want reliable supply while Middle East shipments are disrupted, Western Canadian production is growing, and AltaGas says it is in talks on long-term contracts. About 91% of its expected export volumes for the rest of 2026 are tolled or hedged.
2. A new terminal is close. REEF Phase I on Ridley Island is about 90% complete and on track for the first quarter of 2027, with an optimization project adding about 30,000 barrels a day in the second half of 2027.
3. The balance sheet and utilities are improving. Leverage of 4.3x is below the company’s target range, and new rates in Virginia and Michigan support steady utility earnings growth.

Bear case and risks

1. The port strike. If loading stays slow for weeks, fourth-quarter export volumes and margins take a hit, and Asian customers have already complained about Canadian reliability.
2. Thin upside. The stock is near its 52-week high of about C$57.52 and only about 2% below the average target, with one recent downgrade.
3. Messy earnings. Reported results swing with hedge accounting and global propane spreads. This quarter showed a GAAP loss alongside a record normalized result, and a reversal in spreads would hit the export side directly.

What to watch

1. The Prince Rupert strike. Watch for a settlement or a ruling on AltaGas’s legal challenge, and for any update on loading rates.
2. REEF start-up. Commissioning is now the focus, with first operations targeted for the first quarter of 2027.
3. 2027 guidance and the dividend. AltaGas usually sets out the next year’s guidance in December, and its payout leaves room for another increase.
4. Long-term Asian contracts and analyst targets. Contracts would lock in more of the export business. Targets near C$57 to C$64 will show whether the Street re-rates the stock after this quarter.

Bottom line

AltaGas has earned its five-year run: a record quarter, normalized EBITDA up 45%, record exports and debt now below its own target. The issue is price and timing. At about 28x trailing earnings and 22.5x forward, in line with the midstream group, and only about 2% below the average target, the market is already paying for the export story. The next test is the fourth quarter, when the port strike shows how much it can dent volumes, followed by REEF’s start-up early in 2027. If both go to plan, the targets have room to move. If not, the low yield gives less cushion than the peers’ dividends do.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook — record quarter, flat stock, EBITDA +45%
• 0:19 What happened — Q3 results, exports, guidance, the port strike
• 1:14 Overview — AltaGas vs Canadian midstream peers
• 1:36 Performance heatmap
• 1:54 Valuation (~28x trailing, ~22.5x forward)
• 2:16 Dividends
• 2:37 Analyst ratings & targets
• 3:02 Why it matters
• 3:20 Bull case
• 3:41 Bear case
• 3:58 What to watch

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-10-25.csv, 2,532 rows; October 23, 2026 closes; CAD). The screener files AltaGas under Utilities; because 87% of Q3 2026 normalized EBITDA came from Midstream, peers are business-comparable TSX midstream names (a documented sector exception): Enbridge and TC Energy (large pipelines), Pembina and Keyera (Western Canadian processing and liquids) and Gibson Energy (terminals and marketing). South Bow was left out because it has no Canadian-dollar target. Average rows include AltaGas and skip blank cells. Target 1Y is the MarketBeat TSX-listing consensus in CAD: AltaGas C$57.44 (7 analysts) pulled 2026-10-30; Enbridge C$77.63 (13), TC Energy C$96.29 (15), Pembina C$69.29 (13), Keyera C$73.00 (14) and Gibson C$33.10 (9) pulled 2026-10-27. October 29 closes are from Yahoo Finance chart history. Quarterly figures are from AltaGas’s Q3 2026 release (CAD unless marked); the EBITDA estimate is the FactSet mean cited by MarketWatch, and the strike details and CEO comments are from CBC News coverage of the October 29 call.

Sources

• AltaGas news release, October 29, 2026 — “AltaGas reports record third quarter results”
• MarketWatch / Dow Jones, October 29, 2026 — “AltaGas quarterly underlying earnings rise; FY results seen at top end of guidance”
• CBC News, October 29, 2026 — “Port strike in Prince Rupert set to impact B.C. propane exports”
• MarketBeat — AltaGas TSX forecast page (consensus, CIBC downgrade October 22, 2026, earlier target changes), pulled October 30, 2026; peer TSX forecast pages pulled October 27, 2026
• TipRanks, October 26, 2026 — Jefferies Buy rating and C$64 target
• Yahoo Finance chart history — TSX closes, October 23–29, 2026
• TSX screener merge October 25, 2026 (2,532 rows)

Media credits

Wikimedia Commons: AltaGas logo (File:AltaGas Logo.png, public domain); “Ridley Island, BC - panoramio” by Sam Beebe/Ecotrust (CC BY-SA 3.0); “Ridley Island, Port of Prince Rupert” by WindBorneListener (CC0); “Bulk cargo terminal, Prince Rupert, BC” by William Matheson (CC BY-SA 2.0); “LPG tanker Run Far in waters off Peng Chau, Hong Kong 2019-10-22” by Ilkka Simomaa (CC BY 4.0); “00 0146 LPG liquid gas tanker JOAN” by W. Bulach (CC BY-SA 4.0); “Washington Gas Building, 1100 H St. NW” by Nvss132 (CC0). No AI-generated images were used.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com