Cargojet (CJT) — Record Q3 revenue up 30% and a 10% pop; stock still ~31x trailing earnings

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Quick version: 60-second Short

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The short version: a record quarter, a big pop, and a long way back

Cargojet (TSX: CJT), Canada’s overnight air cargo airline, reported record third-quarter revenue of C$286.5M, up 30.3%, after the close on November 11, 2026. Investors liked it: the stock jumped about 10% on November 12 to C$108.77, the biggest gain on the TSX Composite that day. Even before the report, the shares were up about 38% over twelve months (C$95.12 on the screener).

But the longer picture is less flattering. Over five years Cargojet is still down about 50%, the weakest record in its transportation peer group, and at about 31 times trailing earnings it already trades above the group average of about 24x. The question for a new buyer is whether the turnaround is real and durable enough to grow into that multiple. Below we go through the quarter, the UPS question, and how Cargojet compares with Air Canada, Chorus Aviation, Exchange Income, TFI International and Mullen Group on size, returns, valuation, dividends and analyst targets.

What happened: Q3 results on November 11

On Wednesday, November 11, 2026, after the market closed, Cargojet reported results for the quarter ended September 30. All figures are in Canadian dollars.

• Revenue of C$286.5M, up 30.3% from C$219.9M a year earlier, a third-quarter record. Higher fuel prices are passed through to customers as surcharges and booked as revenue; excluding the fuel effect, revenue was C$265.9M, up about 20.9%.
• Adjusted EBITDA of C$90.2M, up 28.1%, also a third-quarter record. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.5% versus 32.0%, with management estimating the fuel surcharge diluted the margin by about 190 basis points.
• Adjusted earnings of C$1.21 a share, up from C$0.32, and well ahead of the roughly C$0.81 analysts expected. Net earnings rose 117% to C$19.1M (C$1.28 a diluted share).
• Free cash flow of C$62.1M, down from C$152.4M a year earlier, when the company had larger sale-and-leaseback proceeds.
• Net leverage of 2.5 times, reaching the company’s long-term target range by September 30, a goal it had set for the end of 2026. Return on invested capital improved to 5.8% from 5.0% in the second quarter.

Where the growth came from

All three businesses grew. The domestic overnight network brought in C$105.9M excluding fuel pass-throughs, up 6.3%, with on-time performance of 99.3%. ACMI flying (Cargojet supplies aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance to customers such as DHL) rose 10.8% to C$60.5M. The standout was charter revenue of C$61.9M, up 88.1%, helped by an added midweek flight to Liège in Belgium and its extension to Tel Aviv, flying to Central and South America, weekend charters to China, and extra capacity for UPS after its MD-11 disruption.

Outlook and capital returns

Management said October domestic volumes stayed strong and it expects the holiday peak to be broadly similar to 2025. A new scheduled Hamilton–Miami charter, three times a week, starts December 2, using aircraft it already owns; the CEO said there is no new capital spending planned for it. The company bought back 76,749 shares in the quarter and has renewed its normal course issuer bid for another year. The catch: the extra UPS flying is expected to drop significantly after the fourth quarter, and management also warned that conditions across transportation remain challenging.

Business overview: Cargojet vs transportation peers

Cargojet runs Canada’s domestic overnight air cargo network from its Hamilton hub, flies ACMI routes for global integrators, and sells charter capacity when its Boeing 767 and 757 freighters would otherwise sit idle. Its revenue is mostly contracted, with fuel costs passed through to customers.

On the TSX screener, Cargojet sits in the Transportation sector. Air Canada (AC) is the closest airline comparison and runs its own cargo business. Chorus Aviation (CHR) provides regional flying and aircraft services. Exchange Income (EIF) owns aviation businesses, including cargo and charter airlines, alongside manufacturing. TFI International (TFII) and Mullen Group (MTL) are the large Canadian trucking and logistics carriers, the main alternatives for moving freight on the ground. The railways CN and CPKC were left out as far larger and not comparable, and StorageVault, Westshore Terminals and Algoma Central as non-freight or marine niches.

Overview table

Company (Ticker)	Price	Market cap	Revenue (LTM)	Net income (LTM)
Cargojet (CJT)	$95.12	$1.44B	$1.04B	$46M
Air Canada (AC)	$21.91	$5.68B	$24.8B	$305M
Chorus Aviation (CHR)	$31.33	$714M	$1.32B	$48M
Exchange Income (EIF)	$118.58	$6.75B	$3.71B	$205M
TFI International (TFII)	$133.98	$11.5B	$11.6B	$496M
Mullen Group (MTL)	$28.74	$2.85B	$2.34B	$123M
Average (incl. CJT)	—	$4.82B	$7.47B	$204M

Source: TSX screener (November 9, 2026, tsx-2026-11-09.csv) · CAD · LTM = last 12 months. Average includes CJT; blank cells skipped.

Cargojet is one of the smaller names here at about C$1.4B in market value, above only Chorus. TFI is the largest at C$11.5B, and Air Canada has by far the most revenue, about C$24.8B. Cargojet’s last-twelve-months revenue of about C$1.04B produced only C$46.5M of net income, a thin profit for its size, so the earnings recovery shown in the third quarter matters a lot for the valuation below.

Performance: a strong year, but the five-year scar remains

Performance table

Company (Ticker)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y
Cargojet (CJT)	+9.7%	+8.7%	+14.1%	+37.7%	−49.5%	+124%
Air Canada (AC)	−14.2%	−17.2%	+10.2%	+17.1%	−13.7%	+87.1%
Chorus Aviation (CHR)	+5.6%	+12.3%	+31.2%	+33.4%	+7.8%	−26.6%
Exchange Income (EIF)	+0.2%	−8.1%	+18.6%	+53.5%	+171%	+236%
TFI International (TFII)	−16.4%	−30.4%	−29.2%	+7.1%	−6.6%	+346%
Mullen Group (MTL)	+7.3%	+6.2%	+35.3%	+103%	+123%	+57.7%
Average (incl. CJT)	−1.3%	−4.7%	+13.4%	+42.0%	+38.7%	+137%

Source: TSX screener (November 9, 2026). Average includes CJT; blank cells skipped. Price change by window.

Over one year Cargojet is up about 38%, but Mullen more than doubled (+103%) and Exchange Income gained about 54%, while TFI rose only about 7%. Over the last month Cargojet gained about 10%, against falls of more than 14% for Air Canada and 16% for TFI, and that was before the 10% jump on November 12.

The long windows tell a different story. Over five years Cargojet is down about 49.5%, the weakest name in the group, while Exchange Income is up about 171% and Mullen about 123%. Over ten years it is still up about 124%, below the group average of about 137%.

Valuation: not a bargain on trailing numbers

Valuation table

Company (Ticker)	P/E	Fwd P/E	PEG	P/S	P/B	P/FCF	Price/Cash
Cargojet (CJT)	30.82	23.40	—	1.30	1.92	16.62	354
Air Canada (AC)	21.37	—	—	0.24	2.64	17.27	1.03
Chorus Aviation (CHR)	15.94	13.25	—	0.55	1.40	6.01	27.40
Exchange Income (EIF)	32.96	24.55	0.64	1.77	3.65	—	83.07
TFI International (TFII)	22.27	14.22	1.83	0.95	2.76	13.75	41.48
Mullen Group (MTL)	22.55	18.17	1.04	1.19	2.31	17.37	13.15
Average (incl. CJT)	24.32	18.72	1.17	1.00	2.45	14.20	86.74

Source: TSX screener (November 9, 2026). Average includes CJT; blank cells skipped. Highlighted = lowest (cheapest) positive value per column.

On trailing earnings, Cargojet trades at about 31x, above the group average of about 24x; only Exchange Income is higher. On forward earnings it drops to about 23x, still above the 19x average. Its price to book of 1.9x is below the 2.5x average, and its price to free cash flow of about 17x is close to Air Canada and Mullen. Chorus is the cheapest on most measures, at about 16x trailing and 13x forward earnings and 6x free cash flow.

Cargojet’s Price/Cash figure (354) is distorted by its small cash balance and also pulls up that column’s average. The point of the table: Cargojet is not cheap on trailing numbers, so the investment case depends on earnings continuing to grow from here.

Dividend: a modest yield, steady increases

Dividends table

Company (Ticker)	Dividend / share	Yield	Payout ratio
Cargojet (CJT)	$1.40	1.59%	47.6%
Air Canada (AC)	—	—	—
Chorus Aviation (CHR)	$0.27	1.30%	20.5%
Exchange Income (EIF)	$2.66	2.41%	72.2%
TFI International (TFII)	$2.53	1.85%	43.7%
Mullen Group (MTL)	$0.84	2.84%	65.2%
Average (incl. CJT)	$1.54	2.00%	49.8%

Source: TSX screener (November 9, 2026). Average includes CJT; blank cells skipped. Yield = indicated.

Cargojet’s indicated yield is about 1.6%, below the group average of 2.0%, on a trailing annual dividend of C$1.40 a share. Its payout ratio of about 48% of trailing net income is close to the 50% average. Mullen offers the highest yield, near 2.8%, and Air Canada pays no dividend. Management said it expects to keep raising the dividend, as it has done in most years, alongside buybacks under the renewed issuer bid. This is a growth-and-cash-flow story with a small dividend, not an income pick.

Analyst view: Strong Buy, with targets above Thursday’s price

Analyst table

Company (Ticker)	Rating	Price	Target 1Y	Upside	Analysts
Cargojet (CJT)	Strong buy	$95.12	$125.77	+32.2%	13
Air Canada (AC)	Buy	$21.91	$29.49	+34.6%	15
Chorus Aviation (CHR)	Strong buy	$31.33	$40.86	+30.4%	7
Exchange Income (EIF)	Strong buy	$118.58	$152.18	+28.3%	11
TFI International (TFII)	Buy	$133.98	$181.57	+35.5%	19
Mullen Group (MTL)	Buy	$28.74	$34.07	+18.5%	11
Average (incl. CJT)	—	—	—	+29.9%	—

Rating & price: TSX screener (November 9, 2026). Target 1Y: Pulled 2026-11-13 ~05:20 America/Toronto from stockanalysis.com forecast pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus; broker actions TipRanks), all C$: CJT C$125.77 (13 analysts, range 90-151; Stifel Buy C$125 maintained Nov 12; RBC Buy C$140 Oct 1; TD Cowen Buy C$128 Sep 16; CIBC Buy C$125 Oct 5; National Bank Buy C$112 Oct 2), AC C$29.49 (15), CHR C$40.86 (7), EIF C$152.18 (11), TFII C$181.57 (19), MTL C$34.07 (11). No target set has fewer than 5 analysts. Upside = target ÷ price − 1.

Cargojet carries a Strong Buy rating, with an average one-year target of about C$125.77 from 13 analysts. That is about 16% above the November 12 close of C$108.77 (the table’s 32% upside uses the pre-report screener price). Targets range from C$90 to C$151. After the results, Stifel kept its Buy rating and C$125 target (November 12). RBC (Buy, C$140, October 1) and TD Cowen (Buy, C$128, September 16) sit higher; National Bank (Buy, C$112) is among the lower targets. Among peers, TFI and Air Canada show bigger gaps to their targets, but after much weaker runs.

Why it matters: from shrinking story to busier planes

For years, the Cargojet story was slower growth, higher debt and a falling stock. This quarter shifts it toward better pricing, busier planes and lower debt: net leverage is back in its target range, charter flying is filling gaps in the schedule, and management is pushing “revenue quality”, in other words charging more on lanes where its capacity is scarce.

Management also says it can grow with the planes it already has, with no new aircraft planned unless a contract clears its return hurdle. That matters most for investors who want growth plus free cash flow, not just a dividend, because growth without new aircraft spending should turn more of each extra dollar of revenue into cash.

Bull case

1. Idle planes put to work. Charter flights to Europe, South America and China use aircraft on weekends and during the day, when the domestic network does not need them, and the new Miami route adds connections without new capital spending.
2. More cash for shareholders. With net leverage back at 2.5 times, more free cash flow can go to dividend increases and buybacks under the renewed issuer bid.
3. Room for the multiple to shrink. At about 31x trailing earnings, continued earnings growth, as the forward P/E of about 23x implies, could bring the multiple down quickly.

Bear case and risks

1. The UPS work fades. Extra flying for UPS is expected to drop sharply after the fourth quarter, and new routes need to replace it; management hopes to have that done by the first quarter of 2027.
2. Flattered revenue and higher costs. Fuel surcharges inflate reported revenue, and a new pilot contract effective July 1 has raised crew costs, with productivity benefits still to come.
3. Already priced for growth. After the 10% jump, Cargojet trades above the peer average on earnings, and management itself warned that conditions across transportation remain challenging.

What to watch

1. The holiday peak and fourth-quarter results, which management expects to look broadly like 2025’s peak.
2. How fast new routes replace the UPS flying, with management aiming for the first quarter of 2027.
3. The Miami service launch on December 2 and the volume commitments behind it.
4. Buybacks and the next dividend increase, plus whether analysts lift targets toward the C$140–C$151 end of the range.

Bottom line

Cargojet’s third quarter was the cleanest in a while: record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, an earnings beat, and leverage back inside its target, all with the fleet it already has. The market rewarded it with a 10% jump. But the stock is still about half its level of five years ago and trades at roughly 31 times trailing earnings, above its transportation peers, so the price now assumes the turnaround continues. The next tests are the holiday peak and how quickly new routes replace the UPS flying.

Video chapters

• 0:00 Hook: record revenue, 10% pop, still half its 5-year level
• 0:22 What happened: Q3 results (Nov 11)
• 1:12 Overview vs transportation peers
• 1:37 Performance
• 2:02 Valuation (31x trailing, 23x forward P/E)
• 2:26 Dividends
• 2:44 Analyst ratings & targets
• 3:10 Why it matters
• 3:29 Bull case
• 3:46 Bear case
• 4:07 What to watch + close

Data notes

Table figures are TSX screener values (merge tsx-2026-11-09.csv, 2,564 rows; CAD), taken before Cargojet’s November 11 report, so the table price (C$95.12) is below the November 12 close of C$108.77 (stockanalysis.com). Peers are same-sector (Transportation) comparables: Air Canada (airline with a cargo arm), Chorus Aviation (regional aviation and aircraft services), Exchange Income (aviation including cargo and charter airlines) and the trucking and logistics carriers TFI International and Mullen Group; CN and CPKC were excluded as far larger railways, and StorageVault, Westshore Terminals and Algoma Central as non-freight or marine niches. Average rows include CJT and skip blank cells. Air Canada pays no dividend; its payout cell is blank. Payout ratios are on trailing net income. Adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow and net leverage are company non-GAAP measures from the Q3 2026 release; segment figures, the fuel effect, the UPS outlook and the Miami launch are from the November 12 earnings call. The roughly C$0.81 consensus EPS estimate is from Investing.com. Target 1Y is the stockanalysis.com consensus (S&P Global Market Intelligence) pulled 2026-11-13: CJT 13 analysts, AC 15, CHR 7, EIF 11, TFII 19, MTL 11; none under 5. Broker actions are from TipRanks via stockanalysis.com.

Sources

• Cargojet news release, November 11, 2026 — Cargojet Reports Highest Ever Third Quarter Revenue (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cargojet-reports-highest-ever-third-quarter-revenue-892205499.html)
• Investing.com — Earnings call transcript: Cargojet beats Q3 2026 estimates, November 12, 2026 (https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-cargojet-beats-q3-2026-estimates-as-stock-jumps-935-93CH-5022507)
• stockanalysis.com — CJT, AC, CHR, EIF, TFII and MTL forecast pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus; TipRanks broker actions), pulled 2026-11-13
• The Motley Fool Canada / StockSummarizer Market Wrap — TSX movers, November 12, 2026
• TSX screener merge November 9, 2026 (2,564 rows)

Media credits

Voice: narration is Andrew’s own cloned voice (Chatterbox English, local ONNX inference, reference = Andrew’s recording). Andrew approved production use on November 11, 2026.

Logo: Cargojet Airways logo (“Cargojet Airways Logo.svg”, English Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cargojet_Airways_Logo.svg; trademark of Cargojet Inc.; used for identification).

Wikimedia Commons photos:

• “Cargojet Airways B767-323(ER)(BDSF), C-GXAJ … Los Angeles (LAX) - Edmonton (YEG)” — Charles from Port Chester, New York, CC BY 2.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cargojet_Airways_B767-323(ER)(BDSF),_C-GXAJ,_MSN_422_(03_1992),_as_W8_1808_Los_Angeles_(LAX)_-_Edmonton_(YEG),_Flight_time_3_12_(54206612816).jpg — thumbnail photo
• “CargoJet 767 At YHM Hamilton” — Eileen dover019, CC0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CargoJet_767_At_YHM_Hamilton.jpg
• “Cologne Bonn Airport Cargojet Airways Boeing 767-39HER(BDSF) C-FDIJ (DSC04334)” — MarcelX42, CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cologne_Bonn_Airport_Cargojet_Airways_Boeing_767-39HER(BDSF)_C-FDIJ_(DSC04334).jpg
• “Cargojet Airways - Boeing 767-35E(ER)(BCF) - C-GUAJ - Cologne Bonn Airport-6757” — Raimond Spekking, CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cargojet_Airways_-_Boeing_767-35E(ER)(BCF)_-_C-GUAJ_-_Cologne_Bonn_Airport-6757.jpg
• “C-GAJU Boeing 757-204(PCF) Cargojet MIA 19.1.23” — Colin Cooke Photo, CC BY-SA 2.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:C-GAJU_Boeing_757-204(PCF)_Cargojet_MIA_19.1.23_(52843597419).jpg
• “C-GYAJ Boeing 767-383(ER)(BDSF) Cargojet LHR 1.12.20” — Colin Cooke Photo, CC BY-SA 2.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:C-GYAJ_Boeing_767-383(ER)(BDSF)_Cargojet_LHR_1.12.20.jpg
• “Hamilton International” — Nhl4hamilton (en.wikipedia), public domain — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hamilton_International.JPG

No AI-generated images were used. None of these photos were reused from the POW, KEY, SCR or VNP packages.

By Andrew · stocksummarizer.com